【作者】 景冬冬；

【导师】 王正明；

【作者基本信息】 江苏大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 气候变暖现象日益显著的今天,如何能够有效的降低温室气体排放量,这是引起全球关注的话题。国际上一直在努力通过协商机制来达到全球共同减排的目标,但是各国历史二氧化碳排放量问题及面临的不同减排形势导致这种协商机制没能够取得突破性的进展。1997年签订的《京都议定书》提供了三种灵活的减排机制：清洁发展机制(CDM)、联合履约(JI)、国际排放交易(IET)。本文首先以此作为出发点研究了国际碳权交易发展状况,重点研究了欧盟排放交易体系(EU ETS)和芝加哥气候交易所(CCX),并分析了这些交易体系的运行经验。其次,本文对我国的碳权交易市场发展状况进行分析,并深入研究了我国碳市场中存在的问题：减排措施的不可持续性、清洁发展机制的不确定性、碳金融产品匮乏、与碳有关的法律法规的缺失等。然后,本文对我国碳市场中碳减排量的供需状况进行了实证分析。由基于Kaya扩展式对我国1996-2009年的碳排放增长的影响因素进行对数平均Divisia指数分解(LMDI)实证分析,我们可以发现经济效应是造成我国碳排放增加的主要因素,而能耗强度则对我国减排起着重要作用。然后,我们利用碳排放量与GDP的关系对未来10年的碳排放量进行了预测。按照本文提出的三种减排情景假设,计算出我国碳减排供需方面存在的缺口,得出了我国需要通过碳权交易进行减排的结论。在综合以上研究的基础上,本文提出了我国碳减排交易市场的制度设计,为在当前国际碳减排背景下发展我国的碳权市场提供了一些思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays, as climate becomes more and more warms. It has raised global concerns about how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). To get the target of jointly reduce emissions internationally, negotiation mechanism was introduced. But as different countries emission differently and they faced different situations, it’s hard to get a breakout with negation mechanism.The Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997, offered three flexible reduction mechanisms, which is Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI) and International Emissions Trading (IET). Firstly, we described the development of the international emission trading system based on this, studying the European Union’s Emissions Trading System and Chicago Climate Exchange. And later, we analyzed the experiences in these emissions system. Secondly, we analyzed the carbon market in China, and tried to find the problems existing in the market, such as the unsustainable of the current emission reduction measures, the uncertainty of Clean Development Mechanism, the lack of carbon finance products, the lack of carbon-related regulations. Thirdly, in the paper, we analyzed the supply and demand of carbon emission trading market in China by using empirical analysis. By using extended Kaya identity to decompose the driver factors for carbon emission increasing into the energy structure, energy intensity, economic development and population size, to analysis the carbon emission factors during the period of 1996-2009 in China with logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. We can conclude that economic development was the main factor contributes to the increase of carbon emissions, while the energy intensity plays an important role in emission reduction. Then, we predicted the carbon emissions in the next 10 years by using carbon emission and GDP. According to the three emission reduction scenarios assumption, we calculate the gaps between carbon demand and supply. So, we concluded carbon emission reduction trading market need to be developed in China. By study all above, the system design of the carbon emission trading market was given in this paper; it also provides some ideas about how to develop carbon emission trading market under the context of international emission reduction.更多还原