【作者】 田野；

【导师】 许序雅；

【作者基本信息】 浙江师范大学 ， 世界史， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 1991年10月31日,奇卢巴领导的“多党民主运动”在选举中击败执政27年的(1964-1991)“联合民族独立党”,其本人也接替卡翁达成为赞比亚历史上的第二任总统。奇卢巴政府上台以后,根据国际货币基金组织等国际金融机构的“建议”,对赞比亚的国民经济进行了以“新自由主义经济思想”为指导的经济自由化改革。奇卢巴政府的经济自由化改革可大致根据其任期分为两个阶段,在第一任期内(1991-1996)为了稳定宏观经济,奇卢巴政府放开了对汇率和银行利率的管制；改革税制,调低对内税收和对外关税的税率,并用增值税取代了销售税；采用现金预算制度,严格财政预算纪律。在农业领域,奇卢巴政府取消了对玉米和化肥的补贴。同时对正式部门进行改革,大幅裁减政府职员,并对除矿产业外的国有企业进行了大规模私有化改革。到了第二任期时(1996-2001),奇卢巴政府的经济自由化政策进行了较大幅度的调整。政府放宽了对现金预算制度的实施要求；实施临时性征税方案,调高了国内税率；再次加强了对农业市场的干预；暂停了政府职员的裁减计划；“赞比亚联合铜矿公司”的私有化改革也未得到及时的执行。就自由化经济政策实施情况来看,奇卢巴政府第一任期内的实施情况要好于第二任期,尤其在最初几年。这一时期改革的目的也是为了转变经济体制,推动经济发展。然而到了第二任期时,政府却对改革政策进行了较大的调整。许多政策的实施被暂停,尤其是在最后的几年时间里,奇卢巴政府经济自由化改革的目的转变成了获取国际社会的援助。在奇卢巴两届任期内,尽管有些政策的实施出现过波折,有些政策的实施过程也极为拖沓,但整体看来,奇卢巴政府对赞比亚的国民经济仍进行了较为彻底的自由化改革,且这些经济政策都没有再发生大的逆转。自由汇率、自由贸易、税制改革、私有化改革等自由经济政策都得到了落实。从经济发展的实际效果来看,赞比亚的经济自由化改革却是失败的。赞比亚的各项经济指标在这十年时间里均出现了大幅下滑。人均国民生产总值大幅下降,外债总额却继续上升。铜矿产量和人均粮食拥有量也均低于奇卢巴政府上台之时。2001年10月,赞比亚财政部长在《减贫战略报告》中不得不承认,“赞比亚的经济自由化改革加重了国家的贫困程度”。同年12月,世界银行和国际货币基金组织认定赞比亚为“重债穷国”,而联合国开发计划署的2001年度《人类发展报告》也将赞比亚列为世界上唯一一个人类发展指数低于其1975年水平的国家。1991年举行的多党制选举曾被西方树立为非洲以和平方式从一党制过渡到多党制的“样板”,并对这一“样板”的经济改革提供了大量的援助和建议。然而,“集权政治”下未能解决的经济问题,在“民主政治”时期同样没能得到解决。笔者通过对奇卢巴两届政府时期内的经济改革政策分析,总结了撒哈拉以南非洲国家在经济发展方面的一些经验教训。更多还原

【Abstract】 On Oct.31 1991, Zambia hold the democratic president election for the first time. The only one year old party, Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD) defeated the United National Independence Party (UNIP) which had been on power for 27 years. And Frederick.Chiluba became the second president of Zambia in history.After Chiluba came into office, he followed the advises of IMF to implement economic reforms according to the theory of Neo-liberalism Economic Thoughts. His purposes was to recover and promote the economy development. In the first few years after the major election, the MMD government pursued their reforming policies, and the economic prospects for Zambia also seemed good. Those policies included freeing the interest and exchange rates, introducing VAT to replace the consuming tax, introducing cash budget, removing the subsides on maize and fertilizer. But on the second-term government(1996-2001), Chiluba adjusted his economic policies. The government relaxed the disciplines on implying cash budget, introduced temporary taxation, re-tightened the grip on the agriculture market and frizzed the privatization of ZCCM. After almost a decade of continuous structural adjustment programmes, the record on Zambian policy reforms in the 1990s is exceedingly complex and mixed. On the one hand, during the 1990s the foundations were laid for a shift from a state oriented to a market based economy. Most importantly, despite several exogenous shocks and uneven implementation, none of the reform measures implemented have been reversed. But, over time, the MMD government’s commitment to economic reform waned. Clearly, much less progress was made in terms of restructuring the economy by the second MMD government (1996-2001).After almost a decade of uninterrupted policy reforms, the record in terms of economy is week. In terms of macro-economic growth indicators, the Zambian economy has shrunk and is now smaller than before. Per-capital GDP has dropped, but the external debt has increased. The output of copper production has been declining for the whole decades. In Dec.2000, Zambia is judged by the World Bank and IMF to have reached the decision point of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries(HIPC) initiative. In Oct.2001, Minister of Finance concedes that his government’s liberal economic reforms have increased poverty in Zambia. And the UNDP argued that Zambia is the only country in the world with a worse human development index than it had in 1975.The major election of Zambia once be taken as an pattern for the other African countries by western countries, and the western countries also provided a large number of suggestions and assistance to their "pattern". However, Chiluba’s democracy government didn’t solve those problems which had been existed since Kaunda’s government. The author will to conclude the experiences of economic development in sub-Saharan African countries through analyzing the economic reform policies of Chiluba’s government.更多还原