【作者】 罗桂平；

【导师】 毛洪涛；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 会计学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 2008年金融危机下,中国政府为了抗危机、保增长,推出了4万亿的投资计划,其中有3万亿直接投资于基础设施建设项目。随着国家投资计划的出台,各级地方政府相继纷纷推出大规模的投资计划。2010年初,河北省推出2010年重点项目1300项、总投资1.6万亿元；浙江省宁波市敲定2010年会战攻坚项目100个,总投资0.28万亿元；湖北则在2010年3月22日推出未来6到8年内投资总规模为12万亿元的投资计划；重庆紧随其后也推出了1万亿元的投资计划,各省市的投资计划中对基础设施建设的投资占到总投资的绝大部分。从以上报告和数据中可以获得一个信息,我国未来几年建筑业将处于一个高速增长期。这对于国内施工企业来说将是一个非常有利的信号,即施工企业所面临的整个产业市场将持续增长而不是逐渐萎缩,这对施工企业的发展是非常有利的。中央及地方政府大规模的基础设施投资势必推动建筑业的发展,同时也将加剧建筑业的市场竞争,对于身处行业竞争的我国施工企业将是机遇与挑战并存,加强施工企业利润创造中心(工程项目)的成本控制异常重要。但是,在我国工程项目成本管理还处在一个初级阶段,远远没有达到科学管理的要求。许多学者都是从工程项目成本的管理和控制角度来进行研究,对工程项目成本的认识是远远不够的。而企业人士也只重视如何降低工程项目成本,却很少有企业对已完工项目的成本进行分析总结。由于没有对工程项目成本进行认真的分析和研究,很难从工程项目成本管理中发现问题,不利于工程项目的目标责任成本的制定,使得工程项目成本管理方面的浪费现象严重,直接影响了企业的经济效益。同时,这一缺陷也掩盖了企业工程项目管理的内在优势,削弱了工程项目管理发展的经济驱动力,影响了我国工程项目成本管理健康稳定发展。当前许多文献主要是基于对工程项目成本管理概念、内容、特点、及项目成本构成的阐述,或者是介绍某种成本管理方法在工程项目成本管理中的应用,但对什么是工程项目成本,工程项目成本包括哪些内容,以及工程项目成本的内在数量规律性的研究少之又少。要深入了解工程项目成本,首先要明确工程项目成本构成,其次要分析工程项目成本的内在规律,包括各项成本明细之间的关联关系,以及成本形成影响因素的定量研究。本着务实的精神,本文直接面向施工企业工程项目成本管理,从分析工程项目成本入手,进一步研究工程项目成本的形成机理,分析工程项目成本的构成、各明细成本占总成本的比例,能够帮助施工企业明确工程项目成本控制的重心,并为施工企业的目标责任成本的制定提供合理的标准；对各明细成本之间的关系进行比较分析以及对工程项目成本形成的影响因素进行回归分析,能够为工程项目成本控制指导方向,使得工程项目成本控制更有针对性。本人希望通过本课题的研究,对进一步完善工程项目成本管理的方法和依据,促使企业提升对工程项目成本分析重要性的认识,以提高企业经济效益。全文共分为五章,其主要结构和框架如下所述：第一章：导论。主要介绍目前建筑施工企业所面临的机遇与挑战,着重指出工程项目是施工企业利润的来源,建议企业加强工程项目成本的分析。简单阐述国内外数据挖掘研究的现状和本文的研究思路。第二章：工程项目成本相关理论研究。本章首先阐述了什么是项目、什么是成本,并演绎出工程项目成本的概念；其次是简单介绍工程项目成本管理方法；然后根据文献资料分析成本的真正构成以及不同的分类标准,从多种角度对工程项目成本进行分类；最后是对工程项目成本的影响因素进行理论分析。第三章：工程项目成本一般数量规律分析。本章根据数据挖掘理论介绍数据挖掘的思路,接着描述数据的来源和数据筛选,把不符合要求的数据予以删除。然后是对工程项目成本的一般规律展开分析,主要对比分析各类项目的含税毛利率、总成本构成比例、间接费用和其他直接费的构成比例。第四章：工程项目成本影响因素分析。本章分析各项成本明细与五个成本因素之间的关联关系,主要采用迭代回归的方法,并通过参数检验哪几类因素对各项成本的影响最显著,对比分析各明细成本影响因素的区别以及总体回归的效果。第五章：结论及建议。根据工程项目成本的一般规律分析,发现不同类型项目的含税毛利率的差异以及各类型成本构成比例的区别,根据研究结果提出有关针对性建议。根据工程项目成本影响因素分析,发现各种影响因素对各明细成本的影响程度是存在差异的,因此建议企业对不同的成本采取不同的控制措施。最后也对本研究存在的局限性和不足进行阐述,并指明了将来的研究方向。本文运用数据挖掘技术对工程项目成本进行分析,在工程项目成本构成分析中得到以下结论：工程项目成本中材料费占总成本50%以上,而人工费、材料费和机械费合计达到总成本的85%以上,因此可以说人工费用、材料费用、机械费用是工程项目成本控制的重心,应加强对这三者的管理与控制。人工费和机械费呈现出互补关系,因此对二者应进行同步控制,而不能分裂开来。本文还运用多元回归分析方法考察工程项目成本影响因素,得到以下研究结论：对工程项目成本产生最显著影响的是工程规模,即工程总量,其次是工期和项目离公司总部距离两个因素。物价水平只对间接费中部分成本存在显著影响,对这些费用的控制同样要借鉴对材料费控制的经验,使得这些费用的形成不随物价上涨而上涨。施工地点对机械费有负的影响,即在一、二线城市的机械费比较低,建议企业对一、二线城市施工的项目应尽量从当地租赁机械设备参与施工,以降低工程项目总成本。总体来说,机械费用和其他直接费用形成的影响因素较材料费和人工费用更多,相对来说是工程项目控制的难点。因此,建议施工企业对工程项目各项成本要有针对性地实行控制,不能盲目行动或无区别的对待。总之,通过本文的研究,已经清楚的发现工程项目成本控制的重点是人工费、材料费和机械费,尤其是材料费；同时也发现不同类型项目三者占总成本的比例不同。经过回归分析也发现机械费和其他直接费是工程项目成本控制的难点,影响因素众多,企业应加强对两者的监管力度。本文的贡献主要体现在以下几个方面：首先,目前国内外对工程项目成本管理的研究主要是规范研究,有个别的案例研究介绍相关成本管理方法在工程项目上的应用情况,由于事关企业的切身利益,企业不敢冒太大的风险而接受相关管理方法的试验,而且究竟这些方法在工程项目成本管理方面是否适应并没有人予以保证,因此大多数的案例都是处于一种介绍状态,而不是实实在在的进行实地研究。而本文则是获得了相关企业的大力支持从而能够深入施工企业中进行调研,并最终获得了大量的工程项目成本数据以致本文的研究能够顺利进行。其次,某大型铁路施工企业的业务日益多样化、综合化,纯铁路建设业务量占企业业务总量的比重从60%-70%下降到了20%-30%,非公共设施、民用住宅等的建设业务量则不同幅度地上升。基于此,本文亦考察了不同类型工程项目成本形成的数量规律,这一挖掘视角和思路是无法通过单个项目案例研究实现的,这也是本研究的贡献之一。最后,本文通过对工程项目成本的影响因素予以量化,并将已量化的影响因素与工程项目总成本及各明细成本进行回归分析,这在以前的研究中是极其少见的。以前针对工程项目成本影响因素研究的大多都是规范研究,大部分文章只阐述了各种因素可能会对工程项目成本产生影响,尚且没有具体到各明细成本,再者则是所阐述的影响都是基于个人经验判断,没有得到数据的验证。本文研究的局限性和不足：由于受到数据的限制,本文涉及的工程项目成本影响因素有限,现实中影响工程项目成本的因素较多,而且本文研究的工期是一个综合变量,其本身受很多因素的影响,如施工方案的优劣、项目经理的能力、项目组织规模的大小、影响施工的天气状况以及意外事故对工期的拖延等,未来的研究可以更深入地分析这些因素对工程项目成本的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the 2008 financial crisis, the Chinese government want to anti-crisis and keep capital growth, launched a plan to invest 4 trillion, of which 3 trillion in direct investment in infrastructure projects. With the introduction of the national investment plan, local governments have launched their massive investment plans. Earlier last year,1300 key projects in Hebei Province will be launched in 2010, a total investment of 1.6 trillion yuan; Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, crucial battle to finalize the project in 2010 to 100, with a total investment of 0.28 trillion yuan; Hubei in the March 22 launch a investment plans of the next 6 to 8 years, total investment of 12 trillion yuan; Chongqing followed also introduced a 1 trillion yuan of investment plans, investment plans in the provinces of investment in infrastructure accounted for a total investment of the vast section. Reports and data from the above get a message the next few years the construction industry in China will be in a period of rapid growth. This is for the domestic construction enterprises, will be a very favorable signal that companies are facing the construction market will continue to grow the industry rather than shrinking, which is the development of construction enterprises is very beneficial. Central and local government investment in large-scale infrastructure development is bound to promote the construction industry, construction industry will also increase competition in the market are in competition for the construction enterprises in China will be both opportunities and challenges, to strengthen the creating profit center (Project) is extremely important to construction enterprises cost control.However, project cost management in our country is still at a preliminary stage, far from scientific management requirements. Many scholars are from the project cost management and control point for research, and awareness of the cost of the project is not enough. The business people are only concerned about how to reduce the project cost, but few companies the cost of completed projects were analyzed and summarized. In the absence of the project cost of careful analysis and research, it is difficult from the project cost and project cost management identify problems, objectives of the project is not conducive to the development of responsibility cost, making the project a serious waste management, direct affect the economic efficiency of enterprises. At the same time, this defect also obscures the inherent business advantages of project cost managements, project management weakens the driving force of economic development, affecting the project cost management of healthy and stable development.Moreover, many of the current literature is mainly based on the concept of project cost management and content and features, described the composition of project costs, or to introduce the application of a cost management in project cost management, but what is the project cost, including what content, and number of project cost regularity of the inner few. To learn more about the project cost, we must first clear the project cost structure, and secondly to analyze the internal laws of the project cost, including the relationship between the cost of detail, and the Formation of the cost of quantitative research.This pragmatic thinking, direct project cost for construction enterprise management, analysis of project cost from the start, and further study the formation mechanism of the project cost, project cost analysis of the composition, the details of the cost of the proportion of total costs to help construction companies clear the focus of the project cost control and responsibility for the cost of the construction business goals to provide a reasonable standard of development; on the details of the cost of a comparative analysis of the relationship between project cost and the factors affecting the return to form analysis, can guide the direction of the project cost control, making the project cost control is more targeted. I hope that through this project research, to further improve project cost management methods and basis for, encourage enterprises to increase the cost of analysis and summary of project awareness of the importance to improve the economic efficiency of enterprises, with important economic and practical significance.Full-text is divided into a total of five chapters, the main structure and framework as follows: Chapter I:Introduction. Describes the current construction enterprises are facing opportunities and challenges,and highlighted projects is the source of construction corporate profits, we proposed enterprises to strengthen the analysis of the project. Briefly discusses the status of data mining and the idea of this study.Chapter II:the theory of project cost. This chapter first explains what the project, what is the cost, and interpretation of the concept of project cost; followed by some project cost managements; then explains the classification and composition of project cost; finally, the project cost factors were analyzed.Chapter III:The generally law analysis of project costs. The ideas of data mining was described in This chapter, and then describe the data sources and how dose the data was filtered, the data do not meet the requirements to be deleted. The main comparative analysis of various projects including tax gross profit margin, the proportion of the total cost structure, the ratio of overhead and other direct costs constitute.Chapter IV:Analysis of Project Cost Factors. This chapter details relationship between the costs and the five cost factors, this chapter iterative regression method, and through parametric test which types of factors influence the cost of the most significant, detailed comparative analysis of the difference between the cost factors and the overall regression results.Chapter V:Conclusions and recommendations. According to the general rules of project cost analysis and found that different types of project have different profit and proportion of cost, according to research results related to specific recommendations made. Factors under the project cost analysis and found that the details of various factors on the cost differences in the degree of influence is, therefore, recommends that companies adopt different for different cost control measures. Finally, there are also limitations and deficiencies to this study, and pointed out the future research directions.By using data mining technology on project cost analysis, we found:the materials cost of the project cost is more than 50% of the total cost, while labor costs, materials and machinery to achieve the total cost of 85% or more, it can be said labor costs, material costs, machine costs are the focus of the project cost control, should strengthen the management to control these three. Labor costs and machine costs for the presentation of a complementary relationship, and therefore should be synchronization between the two, and not split open.This article also investigated using multiple regression analysis of factors influence the project cost, the following conclusions:project size has the most significant impact of the project cost, followed by the project duration and distance. Price level is only significant impact on part of the indirect costs, we should make the formation of these costs do not rise with the price increases. Construction sites have negative effects on the mechanical charge. Overall, machinery costs and other direct costs have factors more than that of materials and labor costs, relatively speaking, they are the difficulty of the engineering projects. Therefore, the proposed project construction enterprises should be targeted to the implementation of various cost control, not blindly indiscriminate action or treatment.In short, through this research, has clearly found that the project will focus on cost control of labor costs, materials and machinery costs, particularly material costs; also found three different types of projects have different proportion of the total cost. Regression analysis also found that machinery fees and other direct expenses is difficult to project cost control, many factors, enterprises should strengthen the supervision of both.The contribution of this in the following areas:First of all, cost management research is the regulate study, some case studies related to cost management methods described in the application of engineering projects, as concerns the immediate interests of enterprises, businesses can not take too much risk to accept management practices, and whether these methods adapt to in project cost management, so most cases are introduced in a state, rather than the real field study. And this research is received the strong support of the enterprises to be able to get a lot of project cost data and carry out further research in the construction business, eventually this study can proceed smoothly.Secondly, a large-scale railway construction company’s business increasingly diverse, comprehensive, pure railway construction accounts’for the enterprise business volume decreased from 60% - 70% to 20%- 30%, non-public facilities, residential, etc. Based on this, this paper also examines the formation of different types of project cost, the idea is to tap the perspectives and case studies can not be achieved through individual projects, and this is one of the contributions of this study.Finally, the project cost through to quantitative factors, and factors have been quantified and the total cost of the project cost and the details of the regression analysis, which in previous studies is rare. Cost for the project before the influencing factors are the specifications of most of most of the article only describes a variety of factors could have an impact on project cost, yet it is not specific to the details of the cost is based on personal experience, the data has not been verified.Limitations and shortcomings of this study:Due to data limitations, this project involved the cost factors is limited, in reality the factors that affect the project cost are more than we had studied, and duration of this study is an integrated variable, which itself is affected by many factors, such as the scale of construction, the project manager’s ability, the size of the project organization, as well as weather conditions and construction accidents will delays the schedule, future research could be more in-depth analysis of these factors on the impact of the project cost.更多还原