【作者】 郑娟娟；

【导师】 陈业华；

【作者基本信息】 燕山大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济的不断发展和科技的不断进步，人们的需求也越来越高，但是地球资源越来越少，人口也越来越多，人们对物质的需求就对制造业提出了更高的要求，这就使得传统的制造技术不断发展，于是先进制造技术应运而生。首先，本文从区位选择、技术选择和战略选择几方面分析了先进制造技术投资的选择问题，分析了影响先进制造技术投资的潜在风险因素有哪些，并分析了先进制造技术的实施问题，然后通过对潜在风险影响因素的内在联系进行分析，运用熵权法，确定出这些潜在风险因素的权重，然后对变量进行赋值从而构建出灰熵模型，对灰熵模型求解并对其求解结果进行了分析。其次，在对AMT投资风险特征充分认识的基础上识别潜在风险和引发这些潜在风险的具体因素，提出了不同影响因素下的潜在风险规避的措施，同时规划了措施的实施途径。这可以让投资者认识和控制风险，在有限的空间和时间内改变潜在风险存在和发生的条件，降低其发生的频率，减少损失程度，但潜在风险不可能完全消除。最后，运用前面建立的灰熵模型，对长春市富奥公司泵业分公司的先进制造技术投资的潜在风险进行了实证研究，分析了该公司的泵业分公司技术投资的潜在风险因素，并对其进行了具体地分析，根据计算结果分析了各类潜在风险因素如何进行规避，并给出了潜在风险规避的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the advancement of technology and economic, people’ demand for materialcontinues to increase. However, by the limited resources of the earth and theever-expanding population, social development has put forward higher demand to thesupporting industry-manufacturing industry and its technology system. This optimize theadvanced manufacturing technology which constantly optimize develop rapidly.Firstly, it analyzed the choice of advanced manufacturing technology from severalaspects of strategic location, technology and strategy. Then it analyzed the effect factors ofadvanced manufacturing technology investment potential risk, and the problem ofadvanced manufacturing technology implementation. Further, based on the internallinkage analysis, I use entropy method to determine the weight of all potential risk factors.Finally, I construct gray entropy model, solved results and analyzed the results.Secondly, based on advanced manufacture investment risk’s characteristics, Irecognized potential risks and the factors leading to these potential risks. In the light of thefactors I put forward several measures to avoid them and planned implementationapproach of the measures. This could help investors understand and control the risk. Theycan change the condition of potential risks happening, reduce the loss degree.Finally, using the grey entropy model, I researched advanced manufacturingtechnology investment potential risks of Fuao Company’s branch. Then I analyzed thiscompany’s impacting factors of technology investment potential risks, and carried on themeasurement. According to the analysis results, the paper gave some suggestion to avoidthe important risks and gave the countermeasure for potential risk aversion.更多还原