【作者】 周正印；

【导师】 王晓玲；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 环境工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 海河流域大部分水库标准低、质量差,病险情况严重,一旦失事,产生的洪水波必将对下游的人民生命财产造成灾难性破坏。目前,溃坝数值模拟的研究多集中于一、二维,三维模型较少,并且未考虑下游研究区域复杂下垫面的影响。在溃坝环境风险分析方面,主要是关于生命损失、经济损失及社会与环境影响等单方面的研究,直到近年来溃坝综合风险分析才逐渐成为学者的研究热点。因此,开展复杂下垫面情况下的三维溃坝洪水演进数值模拟,研究基于数值模拟的海河流域环境风险分析具有重要的理论与现实意义。在国内外研究的基础上,本文建立了耦合VOF法的三维非稳态水气两相流k ?ε模型,VOF法能够精确模拟溃坝水流强烈变化的自由表面,同时边界条件考虑了具有复杂的下垫面的下游城市建筑群的作用。基于溃坝数值模拟提取的关键水情信息,首先提出了基于属性测度的溃坝后果综合评价方法,它包括影响因素、评语集、评价标准、因素权重、属性测度函数五个部分,其中属性测度函数是最核心的部分,它将各影响因素的取值转化为属性测度,采用主客观权重结合的组合权重计算影响因素的综合属性测度,并根据置信度准则进行综合风险识别。其次,采用TOPSIS法对群坝进行了综合风险排序,通过引入模糊数学综合评价中广泛应用的TOPSIS法,从最优理想解和最劣理想解两方面进行群坝风险排序。结合海河流域病险水库,选取东武仕水库、临城水库、友谊水库、云州水库、庙工水库等五座典型病险大(2)型水库进行了耦合VOF法的溃坝洪水演进数值模拟、溃坝后果综合评价及TOPSIS群坝综合风险排序,结果表明:(1)东武仕水库五种溃决方式下,随着溃口逐渐增大,洪水淹没时间逐渐减小;水深和流速逐渐增大;溃坝严重程度增大。(2)东武仕水库五种溃决方式下溃坝后果综合评价等级均为特别重大事故。(3)采用TOPSIS法对五座典型病险大(2)型水库的综合风险排序按病险程度从大到小依次为:东武仕水库、临城水库、庙工水库、云州水库、友谊水库。更多还原

【Abstract】 The most reservoirs in Haihe basin are of low standard, bad quality and serious condition. The people’s life and property of downstream will be seriously damaged once accident takes place. Most of the studies were concentrated on one and two dimensional model in dam-break numerical simulation. Three-dimensional models from publication of literatures didn’t consider the influence of the complex underlying surface in the downstream. The dam-break environment risk analysis was mainly concerning single influence factor, for example, life loss, economic loss, social and environmental influence. The research hotspot focused on the comprehensive risk analysis in recent years. Therefore environment risk anlysis of Haihe basin based on three-dimensional dam-break flood evolution numerical simulation is of important theoretical and realistic meaning, considering complex underlying surface.Based on studies at home and abroad, the three-dimension standard k ?εmodel of water-air two-phase flow coupled with Volume of Fluid (VOF) method was built. The strong-changing free surface of dam-break flood was simulated by VOF method and the influence of urban buildings of complex underlying surface on dam-break flood was considered in the condition of the boundary. Firstly, based on the flood information of dam-break numerical simulation, the attribute measure model of dam-break comprehensive evaluation was proposed, which contained influence factor, comment set, evaluation standard, factor weight, and attribute measure function. The attribute measure function was the most key part. The value of every influence factor was transformed to attribute measure and the comprehensive attribute measure was obtained by the sum of each attribute measure square combination, which was the combination of subjective weight and objective weight. According to the comprehensive attribute measure and the confidence criterion, the comprehensive risk degree could be identified. Secondly, the group-dam comprehensive risk sequence was gotten by the TOPSIS method. The group-dam risk was sequenced from the positive and negative ideal solutions.Combined with the dangerous reservoirs in the Haihe basin, dam-break flood evalution was simulated, the comprehensive evaluation of dam-break was obtained and the group-dam comprehensive risk was sorted by TOPSIS method. The typical dangerous reservoirs of type large II were chosen to illustrate the methods above, for example, Dongwushi reservoir, Lincheng reservoir, Youyi reservoir, Yunzhou reservoir and Miaogong reservoir. The results show as follows:(1) With the dam breach growing, time of flood submergence becomes shorter, depth and speed of water becomes larger and the dam-break severity increases in the five outburst forms of Dongwushi reservoir.(2) The comprehensive evaluation degrees for the five outburst forms of Dongwushi reservoir are extraordinarily serious.(3) According to the degree of harmfulness, the sequence of five typical dangerous reservoirs of type large II by the TOPSIS method in turn is the Dongwushi reservoir, Lincheng reservoir, Miaogong reservoir, Yunzhou reservoir, Youyi reservoir.更多还原