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供应链的鲁棒性度量及敏感性分析

Measure and Sensitivity Analysis of Supply Chain Robustness

【作者】 唐莉莉

【导师】 赵道致;

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 , 工业工程, 2012, 硕士

【摘要】 由于供应链系统本身的复杂性以及所处环境的开放性,供应链系统在运行过程中不可避免的会遇到来自内部运作以及外部突发事件所带来的各种不确定性,在这种情况下,供应链系统中的每一个环节都存在着潜在的风险,如果其中的一个或者多个环节出现问题,供应链系统却不能抵抗,则整个供应链系统的运行都会受到严重的影响。文章针对供应链系统面临众多不确定性条件的现实,研究供应链鲁棒性的内涵及其度量方法,通过比较现有的供应链鲁棒性的定义,给出概括性较强的定义,使得供应链鲁棒性定义更具体化。根据供应链网络的基本结构给出供应链网络鲁棒性的影响因素,并进行具体分析,随后给出供应链鲁棒性的度量方法,具体是从满足顾客需求的角度出发,分别从三个方面对供应链网络的鲁棒性进行度量,然后在综合得出整体的供应链网络的鲁棒性,接下来从去点和去边两个角度进行供应链网络鲁棒性的敏感性分析,研究给定供应链的鲁棒性在节点和连线分别发生故障时的变化,分析供应链鲁棒性影响因素的不同变化对供应链鲁棒性的不同影响,运用系统分析相关理论和方法对供应链网络鲁棒性影响因素之间的相互关系和供应链网络鲁棒性的度量进行评价。在这个过程中,验证了敏感性分析中所得出的结论,并且给出评价一个给定供应链网络的鲁棒性水平是高或者低的方法。本文对供应链网络鲁棒性度量及敏感性分析,从不同的角度进行研究,使用了多种不同的数学方法,对于供应链网络鲁棒性的进一步研究具有一定的指导意义。

【Abstract】 The supply chain system will inevitably encounter many uncertainties from the internal operation and external emergencies in the operation Because of the complexity of the supply chain system and the open environment it is in. In this situation, there is a potential risk in every aspect of supply chain system, if one or more aspects has or have problem, the whole supply chain system operation will be severely affectedThis dissertation has done a research on the content and metrics of the supply chain robustness based on the reality of the conditions that the supply chain system is facing many uncertainties, and given a general definition of the supply chain robustness by comparing the existing definition of the supply chain robustness, in order to make the definition of the supply chain robustness more specific.According to the basic structure of the supply chain network, This dissertation proposed the impacting factors of the supply chain robustness and specific analysis of it, and then gives a measurement approach of the supply chain robustness, which based the objective of meeting the specific customer needs. The measurement is made up of three parts, and the three parts’robustness come to the overall integrated supply chain network robustness. Then there is the sensitivity analysis of the supply chain network robustness with node losing or link gone, gives a research on how the supply chain network robustness will change when this happens, and how will the supply chain robustness when the impacting factors of the supply chain robustness change.This dissertation analyzes the relationship between the impacting factors of the supply chain robustness and evaluates the measurement approach of the supply chain robustness by using the relevant theories and methods of systems analysis. The analysis proved the result given in the sensitivity analysis, and proposes a method of evaluating the level of robustness of a given supply chain network.

  • 【网络出版投稿人】 天津大学
  • 【网络出版年期】2012年 07期
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