【作者】 柴华；

【导师】 唐国金；

【作者基本信息】 国防科学技术大学 ， 航空宇航科学与技术， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 弹道导弹防御系统是二十一世纪先进军事力量发展的重要方向,防御系统对来袭导弹的探测能力是决定拦截作战成败的关键环节。本文以弹道导弹防御系统探测能力分析为主要目的,系统地开展了针对目标探测过程的分析、建模与仿真研究,本文的主要研究工作包括:探测能力指标体系的构建。以典型弹道导弹防御系统的构成与作战流程为例,分析了目标探测过程的信息交互,探讨了表征防御系统探测能力的两大要素。在此基础上,提炼并建立了探测能力指标体系。通过对探测能力影响因素的分析与梳理,确定了影响弹道导弹防御系统探测能力的关键因素。面向导弹攻防仿真的实验设计方法应用研究。针对导弹攻防仿真实验中的确定型因素,采用正交设计和均匀设计实现多因素多水平的仿真实验设计,研究给出了两种设计方法的设计步骤与结果分析方法。针对服从特定统计分布的随机型因素,引入数论方法以产生均匀散布的抽样点集。通过简单算例,比较了数论方法与传统的Monte Carlo抽样的性能优劣,结果表明,相比Monte Carlo抽样,数论方法可以在保持精度的前提下显著降低计算成本。防御系统探测过程建模与探测能力评估仿真系统研制。针对防御系统对来袭导弹的预警、捕获、跟踪过程,分别分析了卫星、雷达、总部级C2BMC的工作原理,建立了卫星/雷达目标探测与总部级C2BMC数据处理的功能仿真模型;以仿真管理与支撑环境为底层平台,依据模型隔离的设计模式,完成了探测能力评估仿真系统的总体设计与分系统开发,形成了实验设计、实验运行、结果分析的评估流程。防御系统探测问题仿真实验与结果分析。以弹道导弹防御系统卫星、雷达的观测误差作为影响因素,开展正交仿真实验,采用方差分析处理实验结果,探讨了传感器观测误差对防御系统探测能力的影响;以预警雷达部署位置作为影响因素,考虑正常部署、前置部署、后置部署以及无预警雷达四种情况,分别开展仿真实验,考察了传感器部署位置对防御系统探测能力的影响。本文所作的研究初步建立了以探测能力指标体系为依据,以探测能力评估仿真系统为支撑,以基于实验设计理论的目标探测仿真实验为手段的弹道导弹防御系统探测能力评估机制。研究成果具有一定的理论和应用价值,可为相关领域的其它研究提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) is one of the most significant military forces in 21st century, and the detection ability of BMDS is a key node which plays a vital role in the intercepting process. This dissertation focuses on the subject of detection ability evaluation of BMDS, in which the analysis, modeling and simulation of BMDS detection process are systematically executed. The main results achieved in this dissertation are summarized as follows.The evaluation indices system of the detection ability is constructed. Contraposing the structure and operation flow of a Classical BMDS, the information communication in the detection process is analyzed. Two important factors which can describe the detection ability of BMDS are discussed. Based on the above investigation, the evaluation indices system of the detection ability is established. In addition, the key factors which have influences on the detection ability of BMDS are determined.The application of the experiment design method in BMDS simulation is researched. In allusion to the certain factors in missile defense simulation experiments, the orthogonal design method and uniform design method are referred to fulfill the multifactor and multilevel experiment design. As to the random factors, the number theoretic method is referred to generate uniform sample points. A comparison of the characteristics between the number theoretic method and the traditional Monte-Carlo method is drawn via simulation results, which gives the conclusion that the computation cost is remarkably decreased by using the number theoretic method.The detection process of BMDS is modeled and the simulation system of detection ability evaluation is developed. In allusion to the detection process against an attacking ballistic missile, the function principles of the satellite, radar, and the C2BMC are analyzed and the simulation models are established. According to the model separation design pattern, the experiment design subsystem, the satellite subsystem, the radar subsystem and the C2BMC subsystem are developed separately based on the simulation management and the support environment. At last, an evaluation flow including experiment design, experiment execution, and result analysis is established.The simulation experiment and result analysis of the BMDS detection are finished. The orthogonal simulation experiment is executed by taking the detection errors of BMDS satellite and radar as influence factors. The experiment result is disposed by using covariance analysis method, and the influence on the detection ability of BMDS caused by the observation errors of sensors is investigated. Taking the warning radars in BMDS for example, the influence on the detection ability caused by sensor deploying location is researched. According to the investigation in this dissertation, an evaluation mechanism of BMDS detection ability is initially established. The investigation results are fairly valuable both theoretically and practically, which can be reference to the related research regions.更多还原