【作者】 乔文峰；

【导师】 李元祥；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 模式识别与智能系统， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 台风多发生于热带和副热带海洋上,在卫星云图上表现为有组织的涡旋状云系。台风是严重影响人类生产生活的灾害性天气系统之一,而我国又是世界上受台风灾害最为严重的国家之一,准确预报台风事关人民生命和财产安全,具有十分深远的意义。台风中心定位是台风分析业务的关键技术之一,由于台风形态与运动的复杂性,目前世界上对台风自动定位仍处于探索和研究阶段。本文基于卫星云图深入研究了台风中心定位及相关问题,具体内容如下:1)针对单通道和多通道卫星云图,利用分形维、灰度共生矩阵等特征,进行台风区域自动监测研究。2)归纳了多种台风定位方法与方案,基于序列多通道图像对台风定位进行分析,提出基于灰色预测和活动轮廓模型的台风中心定位方案。对每种定位方法进行实验,并将其结果与中国气象局(CMA)最优路径数据进行对比与分析。3)提出多方法集成定位的思想。实验表明,弯曲云带和中心密蔽云区型台风在集成定位后,定位结果精度有了一定提高,集成定位思想能更准确、更科学的确定台风中心位置。4)利用流形学习对台风路径和图像上的相似性进行分析,研究相似台风检索模型,为台风预报奠定基础。5)设计并实现了一个台风客观定位系统,供实际业务使用。包括卫星数据读取处理、地图投影、台风监测、定位等功能。更多还原

【Abstract】 Typhoons often generate from the tropical and subtropical offings. They represent organized vortex appearance on satellite cloud images. Typhoon is one of the most catastrophic weather systems that influents human life seriously and China is one of the countries who suffer the disasters worst. Forecasting typhoons accurately relates people’s life and property. The meaning is profound and lasting. Typhoon center locating is one of the crucial technologies of analyzing typhoons. It is still in the exploration and investigation phase owing to the complexity of the pattern and motion of typhoon.The main contributions of this thesis on typhoon centers locating and correlated problems are as follows:1) Fractal dimension and gray co-occurrence matrix are applied to detect typhoons automatically based on single channel and multiple channels images.2) Several typhoon center locating methods have been generalized. The scheme using Grey forecast and Chan-Vese model have been proposed based on sequential multiple channels images. Every method has been tested and the results have been compared with the best track data of CMA.3) Methods integration is proposed. Experiments on curved band and CDO typhoons show that the result precision is improved. It is more accurate and scientific.4) The similarity of typhoon paths and images based on manifold leaning is discussed and analyzed. A typhoon with similary paths search model is presented. It eatablishes basis for typhoon forecasting.5) A typhoon center locating system is designed and accomplished. It is provided in the professional work of typhoon which includes the reading and processing of satellite data, map projection, typhoon detecting and locating and so on.更多还原