【作者】 张海瑞；

【导师】 宋依群；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 电气工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 智能电网是当今世界电力系统发展变革的最新动向,是促进可再生能源发展、实现节能减排的重要手段。智能电网建设的推进需要认真规划,因此智能电网综合评价的研究,对电网规划和建设具有指导意义。本文围绕智能电网评价方法展开研究,从静态评价和动态评价两方面提出了相应的智能电网评价体系,并对评价方法进行了深入探讨。研究内容如下:针对中国智能电网发展所面临的特殊情况,本文从发电侧、电网侧、用电侧构建了智能电网绿色高效的评价指标,提出了一种新的评价方法——反熵权法。通过四类典型指标对反熵和熵进行了灵敏度分析和对比,说明了反熵赋权更适合于智能电网评价。从分析各地区智能电网发展多样性的角度出发,提出了基于反熵权法的智能电网综合评价模型。通过对五个地区智能电网进行评价,并与熵权法进行对比,说明了基于反熵权法的智能电网评价方法有效、合理。构建了层次化的智能电网评价指标体系,将指标分为了进程类和效果类指标。提出了基于AHP-反熵权法的评价方法,对目标层采用AHP主观赋权,保证了与智能电网发展方向的一致性,对指标层采用反熵权法赋权,突出了地区差异性较大的指标,并给出了基于AHP-反熵权法的智能电网评价的步骤。通过与客观赋权方法对比,说明了基于AHP-反熵权法更具实用性;通过智能电网发展三个阶段的评价算例,使得同一套评价指标体系能够在不同阶段应用,说明对智能电网规划建设具有很好的指导作用。提出了智能电网的潜力评价和发展过程评价,即通过建立智能电网的系统动力学模型预测电网未来的建设发展状况,再用AHP-反熵权法赋权进行评价。潜力评价旨在纵向地衡量智能电网未来的发展能力,在给定投资下预测未来的发展状况,比较各电网的潜力水平。发展过程评价旨在从多个时间断面对智能电网进行整体评价,比较各电网未来发展的总体水平。通过智能电网的系统动力学仿真,可以跨越多个时间点观察其发展变化,了解其潜力;而且通过观察智能电网的发展过程,可以了解相关因素对其的影响。对智能电网的投资和规划具有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Smart Grid is the latest trends in today’s power system development change and is the important means to promote renewable energy development and energy saving.The construction of smart grid requires careful planning. As a result, smart grid evaluation is Guiding significance to network planning and construction. This paper focuses on the evaluation method of the smart grid to commence the study, and proposes the smart grid evaluation system from static and dynamic evaluation, and conductes in-depth discussion on the evaluation method. Study are as follows:In view of current smart grid development in China, this paper constructs evaluation indexes of green and efficient smart grid, and puts forward a novel evaluation method—anti-entropy weight method. Through analysis of the sensitivity of four typical indexes, the anti-entropy weight is proved more suitable for smart grid evaluation. Then, anti-entropy weight based comprehensive evaluation method is proposed in this paper, it is suitable to evaluate the diversity of smart grid development in different area. It is shown via simulation results of smart grid evaluation in five areas that the proposed anti-entropy weight evaluation method is effective and reasonable.Construct hierarchical evaluation indexes of smart grid, which are divided into process indexes and effect indexes, and propose evaluation method based on AHP-anti-entropy method. The target is weighted through AHP, which ensures the consistency of evaluation focus and the direction of smart grid. The index is weighted through anti-entropy weight method, which highlights the regional differences through the degree of disorder of indexes. And the smart grid evaluation procedure based on AHP-anti-entropy method is given. By contrast with the objective weighting method, it shows practicality of the evaluation method based on AHP-anti-entropy. Through the evaluation study of three stages of smart grid development, it descibes the proposed evaluation method can be applied to different stages, and can guide the planning and construction of smart grid.Proposes the potential and development process evaluation of smart grid, that predicting the future development of smart grid through the establishment of system dynamics model of smart grid, then evaluating with AHP-anti-entropy method. Potential evaluation is designed to measure the longitudinal development of future smart grid capabilities, predict the future development in a given state, and compare the potential of the smart grid. Development process evaluation is designed to evaluate the overall situation of the smart grid through cross-section, and compare the overall level of future development of the grid. Through the system dynamics simulation of smart grid, multiple time points can be spanned to show the development and changes and to understand its potential; by observing the development of smart grid, the relevant factors in its impact can be understood. The two evaluation method is important to smart grid investment and planning.更多还原