【作者】 王帆；

【导师】 顾洁；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 电气工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 智能电网技术的深入与发展,必然会对电网需求侧的发展带来深刻的变化,如何应对新技术与新变化,这给电力需求侧管理提出了严峻的挑战。如何有效地针对如今日新月异的电网发展,运用合适的理论与方法提出适用智能电网时代的需求侧管理配套政策体系,解决新时期电力系统的各种突出的结构性矛盾,值得探索。本文主要以智能电网的发展为电网带来的具体影响变化为立足点,指出了我国传统电力需求侧管理的配套机制与政策体系在这些影响下产生的种种问题,针对这些问题结合各国的研究现状,提出了更加合理与适用性更强的政策建议,并通过理论分析与建模对这些政策建议进行了评价与验证。主要完成了以下工作:首先,对智能电网下世界各国电力系统的发展与变化进行了阐述,着重分析了分布式电源、电动汽车与储能技术这三种需求侧变化给电网带来的具体影响。其次,基于上述分布式电源、电动汽车与储能技术对电网带来的具体影响,并借鉴世界其他国家关于智能电网电力需求侧管理的先进实践经验,分别对上述三种需求侧发展的新变化在我国电网中的应用,提出了电力需求侧管理配套机制的激励政策建议。为了实现对所提出的需求侧管理配套政策建议较为全面的评估,引入了博弈理论与进化博弈论,建立了基于进化博弈论的评价及决策模型,提出了需求侧政策评价指标体系,进一步提出了需求侧激励政策评价的多方进化博弈模型,针对三种需求侧变化之一——分布式电源的需求侧管理配套政策建议进行了理论建模与评价分析。最后,结合具体的应用算例,对本文所提出的分布式电源接入电网的配套激励政策进行了计算与验证,算例结果表明,所提出的激励政策建议基本实现了初衷,验证了本文模型与方法的合理性。同时,论文对智能电网需求侧管理配套机制做出了整体的研究与分析,提出了与之相关的具体政策建议,提出了运用进化博弈论模型进行政策评价的方法体系,能够为进一步建立智能电网需求侧管理长效机制提供有益参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of Smart Grid technology, it is bound to bring about profound changes to the demand side of the grid. How to deal with these new technologies and new changes which are so different with the traditional grid, it poses a severe challenge to DSM of power system. Therefore, the traditional political system of DSM is no longer suitable. National power system researchers should be effective to propose the new political system of DSM in the era of smart grid for rapid development of grid with new theories and methods, to solve the variety of prominent structural contradictions in the new power system.The paper is based on the specific impact and changes in the grid by the development of Smart Grid. It points out that the problems of China’s traditional political and mechanism system of DSM under these influences, and propose the more reasonable political recommendations with the issues above and the national research applicability status, then the political recommendations are evaluated and validated by theoretical analysis and modeling.Firstly, the development and changes of power systems around the world under Smart Grid are described, and three specific changes in demand-side—DG, PHEV and Energy Storage technology are Summarized. After that the specific impact to the power grid by the three demand-side changes is analyzed.Secondly, the specific political recommendations and mechanism are proposed related to DSM of three kinds of demand-side changes in China’s power grid in this paper, which is based on the specific impact by DG, PHEV and Energy Storage technology, and the advanced experience and practice on Smart Grid’s DSM from the other countries.Then, in order to properly assess the reasonableness of political recommendations of DSM proposed, the Evolutionary Game Theory is introduced, which is synthesized by the classic game theory and the theory of evolution, political recommendations of DG’s DSM, one of three changes in the demand side, is modeled and evaluated by the application of Evolutionary Game theory, and the relevant specific evaluation index system is obtained.Finally, with specific numerical example, the evaluation index of political recommendations for DG’s DSM is actually calculated, Numerical results has proved that, the corresponding effect of the specific political recommendations is achieved, and reasonable.The paper has made the overall research and analysis about the DSM mechanisms under Smart Grid, proposed the specific political recommendations, and Evolutionary Game Theory for policy evaluation, and the final research results is very beneficial to build content and long-term DSM mechanism of Smart Grid.更多还原