【作者】 赖娇龙；

【导师】 胡昊； 史小宁；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 原油的稳定供给和运输安全是保障原油进口的重要条件。如何确保原油的可靠供应已成为当前世界各国能源安全的突出问题,而原油运输无疑是这个供应链条上至关重要的一环。运输网络是保障原油运输安全、顺利的基础,它包括诸多复杂因素,以及由此导致的诸多不确定性。一旦运输网络中某个节点断链,将给原油进口运输带来风险和挑战。因此,进行中国原油运输网络的安全保障分析将成为国家原油甚至能源安全问题研究的重要切入点。本文应用风险管理理论,深层次地考虑在外界环境变化、众多不确定因素下的原油运输网络安全保障研究,并将其细化为原油进口需求变化研究,原油轮船队运力决策研究以及网络稳定性研究三大问题。在分析影响进口需求、运力决策以及网络稳定性的不确定性因素的基础上,文章应用多元线性回归辅以岭回归进行预测模型的修正与原油进口值的预测。通过Fuzzy Logic理论将影响船队运力决策分为扩张、保持与萎缩三大模糊集合,并基于博弈论原理研究网络稳定性,找出网络中的薄弱环节。最后以非洲-中国进口路线为例,进行了模型的应用。通过研究,2020年中国预计原油进口海运需求约7.77亿吨,为合理预测进口需求量、妥善规划船队运力来提升对于供应链断链风险的可抗性,早日完成国家原油战略储备计划奠定坚实基础;而以非洲-中国运输路径为例,斯里兰卡-新加坡路径为关键环节。本文研究可以通过找出原油运输网络中的薄弱环节对市场进行动态反馈,进而为网络稳定性优化及原油运输网络安全保障提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regular supply of crude oil and safe transportation network are taken as signs of guarantee of China’s crude oil import. As a result, how to ensure a reliable supply of crude oil has become the current energy problems for most countries all over the world. Furthermore, the safety of crude oil transportation network is a critical part of this supply chain. Crude oil network consists of many complex factors and uncertainties. Once one link of the network fails, it will bring risks and challenges to the whole supply chain, then further to safety of crude oil import. Therefore, comprehensive analysis of China’s crude oil transportation network safety management will be a good starting point to investigate China’s crude oil and national energy security problems.Based on risk management theory, research is taken under fluctuating market environment and various situations of uncertainty. Study on China’s crude oil transportation network safety management is divided into three parts: (1) research on import demand; (2) research on China’s tanker fleet planning decision; (3) research on network reliability. After analyzing uncertain factors which affect crude oil import demand, tanker fleet composition decision and network reliability respectively, multiple linear regression with ridge regression are proposed. Tanker fleet composition decision is divided into three fuzzy set: expansion, maintenance and shrink using fuzzy logic theory. By applying game theory into research of network reliability, vulnerable nodes are found. A case study on China’s crude oil import practices is used to test the validation and apply the proposed methods.Through this study, crude oil import demand in 2020 is forecasted to be 770 million tons. Resistance to supply chain failure will be improved by properly forecasting import demand and planning tanker fleet, which will help fully implementing the State Oil Strategic Reserves Plan as well. Link from Sri-Lanka to Singapore is raised as the key link for the whole route Africa-China.Dynamic actions were taken under uncertain factors to improve network reliability, which can used as the theoretical foundation of China’s crude oil safety ensurance study.更多还原