【作者】 谢田；

【导师】 张勇传； 周建中；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 系统分析与集成， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 洪灾损失评估在防洪规划以及法规制定、洪水灾害风险管理、防洪减灾效益评估、洪水保险等方面都起着极其重要的作用。国内外专家对于洪灾损失评估的理论与方法已做了许多的研究探索。本文的研究任务来源于国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)课题《坝堤溃决风险分析理论与评估方法》(课题编号:2007CB714107)。研究工作针对荆江分蓄洪区开展了应用示范,具有重要的理论意义和工程应用价值。本文首先针对洪灾区域内社会经济指标空间分布不均匀的情况,研究了社会经济数据空间展布的理论与方法;然后针对洪水分布特性的强不规则性问题,提出了一种基于GIS空间数据分析与二维洪水演进模型计算相结合的洪水淹没特性动态评价模型;最后,在研究了基于淹没特性分析的洪灾损失计算方法后,采用基于数据交换的松散耦合设计方式,设计并实现了洪灾损失动态评估模型。该模型主要分为三大模块:动态淹没分析模块、损失计算模块和空间属性数据综合管理模块。动态淹没分析模块基于GIS空间分析功能设计实现,而损失计算模块采用软件编程实现,这两个模块之间的交互通过数据库存取操作进行,空间属性数据综合管理模块主要实现空间属性数据的动态展示和维护。与现有的静态洪灾损失评估模型不同,本文提出的动态评估模型可以实现每个时段淹没程度的直观展示和实时灾害损失评估,即洪水演进历程时间与淹没范围、水深、灾害损失状况都以栅格形式呈现和存储,易于决策者查询参考。该损失评估模型,利用了二维洪水演进计算结果,评估过程充分反应了地区的土地利用分布特点,经济分布特征以及洪水演进特性,将GIS手段与损失评估数学模型进行结合,计算结果准确,有较大的实用价值。基于上述模型和方法开发的洪灾损失动态评估系统已应用于荆江分蓄洪区、漳河水库和佛山实验区;本文以荆江分蓄洪区为实例,验证了系统模型的有效性与实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The flood disaster loss assessment plays an important role in flood control planning, flood risk management, flood insurance, flood control and disaster mitigation assessment and formulation of related laws and regulations. In this field, experts from home and abroad have done lots of researches and exploration. This work is supported by a grant from the National Basic Research Program of China (Project No. 2007CB714107). This research is applied to Flood disaster loss evaluation on Jingjiang flood diversion district and demonstrate theoretical as well as practical values.Firstly, this paper did researches on spatial distribution method to solve the problem that Social-economic data is unevenly distributed in each administrative unit, which leads to inaccurate input data of the disaster loss evaluation model. Then the dynamic submerging analysis model which is based on GIS spatial analyst functions and two dimensional flood evolution results is provided. Based on this model, combined with the flood disaster loss calculation model, a flood disaster loss dynamic evaluation model has been proposed. This model has a loosely coupled design pattern based on data exchange and it is divided into three slave modules: submerging analysis module, Flood disaster Loss evaluation module and Spatial attribute data comprehensive management module. Different from static flood disaster loss evaluation nowadays, the model developed by this paper can directly display the situation of submerge and evaluate the disaster loss caused by flood in each time units. Therefore, in every moment of the flood evolution, the submerged area, water depth, flow velocity and flood disaster loss values can be saved and displayed in the format of grid, which provide useful information to decision-maker.The system has been applied on Jingjiang Flood diversion district, Zhanghe Reservoir and the experiment area of Foshan. The demonstration system is implemented on Jingjiang Flood diversion district. This model combined with GIS analysis methods and mathematical ways offers an accurate and efficient method of flood disaster loss evaluation.更多还原