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基于DEMATEL-ANP水电施工现场安全评价模型研究

Research on Safety Assessment Model of Hydroelectric Construction Site with DEMATEL and ANP

【作者】 李莹

【导师】 曾伟;

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 , 系统工程, 2011, 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国国民经济的快速发展,我国水利水电工程施工行业也得到突飞猛进的发展,从困惑到适应,从自发到自为,成绩十分可观。但纵观近些年来我国水利水电工程施工行业的总体发展状况可知,由水利水电施工引起的安全生产伤亡事故却依然占很大比例,从表面上看,这些伤亡事故大多由人的违章行为引发的,但究其深层次原因,绝大多数事故都存在着安全管理上的缺陷和事故隐患。因此,如何提高水利水电工程施工安全管理水平是当前水利水电工程施工企业首要而且迫切的任务。本文首先研究了我国水利水电工程现场施工的特点,根据水利水电工程施工安全技术相关法律法规、标准等文件,并结合专家意见及水利水电工程施工现场实际,建立水利水电工程施工现场安全评价指标体系。然后深入调查国内外水利水电工程施工现场安全评价现状,系统分析了当前国内外水利水电工程施工安全评价方法的优缺点及其差异性,提出了一种适用于水利水电工程施工现场的安全评价方法——DEMATEL-ANP方法。由于DEMATEL方法虽然能够计算各安全评价指标之间影响的强度,但是计算过程将各个安全评价指标权重视为相同,没有考虑到各安全评价指标之间权重有高低之分的情形,因此本文将DEMATEL方法与ANP方法结合,由DEMATEL方法确认各安全指标之间的影响强度,由ANP方法获得各安全指标的权重,通过建立基于DEMATEL-ANP方法的水利水电工程施工现场安全评价模型,得到的混合权重进行排序,找出其对应安全评价指标的排序,为施工企业安全管理提供分析依据。

【Abstract】 Along with the rapid development of our national economy, China’s hydropower engineering construction industry is also in rapid development, from confusion to adaption, from spontaneous to productive, the performance is very considerable. But looking at the total conditions of our country’s hydropower engineering construction industry, it is known that the proportion of various fatal and injury accidents caused by hydropower engineering construction is still high. Superficially, these casualty accidents are mostly caused by the people’s illegal behavior, but investigating its deep reason, we will find that most of the accidents exist some of the defects and hidden dangers of accidents in safety management. Therefore, how to improve the water conservancy and hydropower engineering construction safety management level is the current hydropower engineering construction enterprise’s primary and urgent task.The characteristics of the construction site in our hydropower engineering are studied in first in this dissertation. According to the water conservancy and hydropower engineering construction safety technology and related laws and regulations, standards, and other documents, and combined with expertise and practical conditions in the current hydropower engineering construction industry, the hydropower engineering construction site safety evaluation index system is established. And then the safety evaluation actualities are investigated in deep both at home and abroad, and the advantages and disadvantages and the discrepancies of the current safety evaluation methods are analyzed systematically, and a safety assessment method: DEMATEL-ANP method suitable for hydropower engineering construction site is put forward. Although DEMATEL method could calculate the degree of influences between the safety evaluation indexes, the weight of all the safety evaluation indexes are seen as the same during the process of computation. Therefore, combining DEMATEL method and ANP method, this paper confirms the degree of influences between the safety evaluation indexes by DEMATEL method and obtains the weight of the safety evaluation indexes by ANP method, and establishes the hydropower engineering construction site safety evaluation model with DEMATEL and ANP. And then the sorting of mixed weight is got, which provides analysis basis for the construction enterprise’safety management.

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