【作者】 张乃方；

【导师】 焦文玲；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 燃气作为一种优质、高效的能源,必将在二十一世纪的能源结构中占有举足轻重的地位,加快城市燃气发展成为我国经济发展的必然趋势。鉴于燃气本身有毒、易燃、易爆的特性,敷设于人口稠密城区地下的城市燃气输配管网一旦发生泄漏,将可能造成中毒、火灾和爆炸等恶性事故,导致严重的人员伤亡和经济损失。因此,对城市燃气管网系统进行风险评价,进而采取相应的预防、维护和管理措施,将目前管网系统的事后响应型管理方式向事前预防型转变是十分必要的,这样才能够达到提高城市燃气管网运行的安全可靠性,减少城市燃气管道的泄漏事故的目的。本文首先介绍了国内外油气管道风险评价的研究现状,并分析了风险评价的相关基本理论,简要介绍了风险及风险评价的定义、各种风险评价方法的特点以及两种权重确定方法的特点和步骤。本文通过对城市燃气管网特点的分析及各种定量风险评价方法适用性的比较,选择模糊综合评价法为城市燃气管网风险评价的主要方法。以长春的中压管网为例,通过对相关资料的整理分析,并参考相关文献资料,分别提出了中压-钢管、铸铁管和中压-PE管的风险评价指标体系,采用层次-专家咨询综合评价法确定了每项风险评价指标的权重,并确定了每项评价指标的具体评分细则,对长春市二道区的中压铸铁燃气管网进行了风险评价并提出相关建议。本文通过分析城市燃气管网信息数据库建立的必要性及我国该项工作与国外的差距,得到必须尽快建立和完善管网风险评价信息数据库的结论,并利用动态网页技术初步构建了长春市燃气管网B/S结构的数据库信息系统。本文通过对城市燃气管网风险管理的定义、必要性和特点的分析,阐述了将风险管理引入到城市燃气管网系统管理的理念,并提出了城市燃气管网风险管理的基本流程图,简要介绍了风险评价在风险管理中的作用以及燃气公司、政府部门、其它单位之间围绕风险评价开展的各项工作。本文所采用的方法和得到的结论对城市燃气管网的风险评价、数据库的建立及风险管理具有一定的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a sort of energy of high quality and efficiency, it is certain that gas will play an important role in the energy structure of the 21th century, thus if our country would like to develop economy, we have no choice but to speed the construction of town gas networks. In consideration of gas is poisonous and flammable, if gas pipelines which buried under the city full of people ground leak, there would be some serious accidents such as poisoning, fire and blast. Then the incidents will cause casualties and property loss. As a result, risk assessment for town gas networks is necessary and in line with which we can take relevant prevention, maintenance and management measures to change the town gas networks maintenance plan from blind and maintenance into provisional and active service. What’s more, the leakage of gas pipelines will decrease and the reliability of town gas networks operation will increase.At first, the research status of oil and gas pipelines risk assessment has been introduced, at home and abroad. Then, the relevance basic theories have been analysised, including the definitions of risk and risk assessment, the characteristics of various kinds of risk assessment methods, the traits and steps of two methods how to determine the weight of every index.In this paper, the characteristics of city gas networks have been analysised and the applicability of quantitate risk assessment methods have been compared with each other. Then, the fuzzy-multiple method has been chosed as the main risk assessment method. Take Changchun for example, based on the relevant information of gas networks and literatures, the risk assessment models of steel, cast iron and PE pipelines have been put forward, the weight of every of risk assessment index has been determined using expert and gradation method and the standard for evaluation of each index has been confirmed. The risk of mid-press cast iron gas pipeline networks in Changchun Oudao has been assessed and some relevant suggestions have been put forwords.Based on the analysis of the necessary that the data base about city gas networks should be built and the misdistance compared with abroad, the data base of Changchun gas networks which model is B/S has been built using dynamic pages technology.The definition, necessary and characteristics of risk management have been analysis based on which risk management has been introduced into city gas networks daily maintainance and management and the simple flow chat of risk management has been put forward, in which suggestions aimed at the gas company, the government and other units, based on the results of town gas networks’risk assessment is thrown out in order to enhance the reliability of gas distribution networks.The methods and the conclusions in this paper may make sense for the risk assessment, the building of data base and risk management of city gas networks.更多还原