【作者】 王新欣；

【导师】 孙佰清；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 金融学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 温室气体排放所产生的温室效应是全世界必须面对的重要环境问题之一,而二氧化碳作为温室气体的主要组成部分,其过度排放受到了人们的共同关注。国际上的高度管制和一系列限制其排放的措施体现了现今各国节能减排的压力。目前我国作为非附件一国家并不需要承担减排义务,但作为经济高速增长的发展中国家和碳排放大国,在京都议定书的第二阶段必然会受到国际各界的施压。因此,为使我国顺利适应后京都时代,保持与国际市场接轨,将市场机制引入到我国碳排放权交易中,结合我国区域发展不平衡现状,将区域差异融入到政策制度的制定中,完善我国碳排放权定价,建立适应我国发展的健全的碳排放权交易机制。首先,将我国划分为四个区域,分别为东部地区、中部地区、西部地区和东北三省,采用泰尔指数分析我国经济增长和碳排放的区域差异,运用面板数据计量经济学方法分析各区域经济增长和碳排放之间的相关关系,结果显示,我国各区域碳排放与经济增长之间存在协整关系,各区域中碳排放量均为经济增长的单向格兰杰原因。在此基础上,根据环境库兹涅茨假说建立各区域环境库兹涅茨模型。其次,分析经济增长区域差异下的我国碳排放权定价,并将期权机制引入到交易中,提高定价合理性和市场活跃度。在一级市场中运用B-S期权定价模型分析和计算各区域排放权初始分配价格,并详细分析了二级市场价格形成机理。最后,构建我国基于经济增长区域差异的碳排放权交易机制,提出碳排放权区域差异总量限制、初始分配、处罚机制和可存储可交易机制等符合我国发展现状的机制内容,根据该机制的相关约束条件和碳排放权初始分配期权定价建立全局优化模型,分别计算和分析政府对各区域采取相同的减排标准和差异化减排标准对各区域和全国带来的影响,并在分析模型结果基础上提出我国应在实现减排目标的同时保持适度经济增长,促进区域平衡发展,加强政府监管等政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The greenhouse effect caused by the greenhouse gas emissions is one of the most important environmental issues faced by the world. As the major component of greenhouse gases, the carbon dioxide’s excessive emissions caused common concern from the people. High degree of international control and a range of measures to limit carbon dioxide emissions reflect the current pressure from energy-saving and emission reduction across all the countries. As the non-Annex I country, China has no need to undertake the obligations of emission reduction at present. However, it will be under enormous pressure in the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol; because with the economics growing rapidly, its volume of carbon emissions will become more and more. To adapt the post-Kyoto era and keep up with the international market, the market mechanism should be introduced into the carbon emissions trading of China. Combined with the current state of unbalanced regional development, taking the regional differences in to the policy’making consideration, and further perfect the mechanism of carbon emissions pricing, and builds a sound carbon emissions trading mechanism for our country.This thesis divides china into four areas, including eastern, central, western and northeastern regions, and makes some research on the economics growth and carbon emissions of China. First, the regional difference is analyzed by Theil index; then the relationship between them is studied by the econometric method of panel data. The research finds that cointegration relationship exists between the regional economic growth and carbon emissions, and the regional carbon emissions are one-way Granger causes of economic growth. On this basis, the paper establishes the regional environmental Kuznets model under the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Then, the carbon emissions pricing under regional differences is analyzed, and the introduction of options trading mechanism helps improve the pricing rationality and market activity. By B-S options pricing model, the paper calculates the initial allocation price of carbon emissions in different regions, and get a detailed analysis of the price formation mechanism in the secondary market. Finally, this paper builds the carbon emissions trading mechanism based on regional differences of economics growth, and presents the content of the mechanism such as the total carbon emissions restrictions, the initial distribution, the punishment measures and the storage trading mechanism. According to the constraints of the mechanism and the initial distribution options pricing of carbon emissions, a global optimization model is established, and the effect by the different emission standards made by the government is analyzed. The results of the model show that while achieving the emissions reduction targets, China should maintain a moderate economic growth rate, promote the balanced regional development, and strengthen the government’s regulation.更多还原