【作者】 张璇；

【导师】 钟晓兵；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 21世纪以来各国政府大力推崇金融国际化,然而,金融开放在推进全球金融业快速整合的同时,也对各国金融安全产生了冲击。自亚洲金融危机以来,墨西哥危机、次贷危机、欧洲债务危机频频爆发,促使人们提高了对主权信用评级与金融体系安全的重视。主权信用级别作为一个经济主体信用等级的上限,影响一国政府及境内机构在国际金融市场上的融资能力和成本。在信息不对称的金融市场上,随着国际投资的日益增多,投资者越来越需要了解目标国的主权信用情况,在这种需求的推动下,主权信用评级已经形成一个相当规模的产业。美国SEC认证的三家权威评级公司标准普尔、穆迪和惠誉评级结果的发布,对于全球市场具有巨大的影响力。作为新型市场国家,主权评级对于中国的意义不仅仅在于扫清对外融资的障碍、或者降低对外投资风险,它兼具“内部评级”的作用,即通过建立评级模型检视影响本国信用状况的因素,从而对国家经济金融的现状有所把握,以期对潜在风险进行防范。文章通过对标准普尔、穆迪、惠誉及政治风险集团的评级模式研究,总结归纳出一系列评级要素与评级指标,并以此为依据,通过定性与定量相结合的研究方法对中国的主权信用现状进行研判,揭示我国政治、经济、财政等方面的潜在风险,继而提出防范建议。文章最后剖析了中国信用评级业面临的风险和存在的问题,论证了建立自主信用评级体系的原则以及制度选择。中国经济社会正在快速跨入一个信用时代,规范我国信用评级业是维护我国经济金融安全,重新构建国际金融体系的必由之路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 21st century, governments of different counties spare no pains to strengthen financial globalization; however, as well as promoting the rapid development and integration of global finance, financial opening impacts financial securities across the world. Since the Asian financial crisis, the Mexican crisis, the subprime mortgage crisis and European debt crisis have occurred consequently, this stimulates people to take the sovereign credit rating and financial security more seriously.As a ceiling of credit for economic bodies, sovereign credit rating influences the ability and cost of capitalization in international financial markets for a country’s government and institutions. In financial markets with information asymmetry, the more international investments increase, the more investors need the information for target country’s sovereign credit situation. Driven by this demand, sovereign credit rating has become an industry with a large scale. The influence power of the information released by the three authoritative credit rating companies which are certified by US SEC is without question.As an emerging market country, the meaning of sovereign ratings for China lies not only in clearing obstacles for external capitalization, or reducing risk in foreign investment, but also lies in“internal rating”, which means to check the factors which impact the credit status by credit models, in order to grasp the situation of domestic economy and keep away from potential risks. By studying the credit patterns of Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch and PRS, we summarize a series of rating factors and rating indicators, based on which, we conduct an empirical research on china’s sovereign credit state through a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods.Finally, the article analyzes the risks and problems of China’s credit rating industry , demonstrates the principle of establishment of an independent credit rating system and institution choice. China’s economy and society are entering a creditera rapidly, the regulation of the credit rating industry of China is a thing we must do to maintain China’s economic security and reconstructing the international financial system.更多还原