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基于决策支持理论的特殊高原机场签派放行研究

Research on the Dispatch Release of the Special Plateau Airports Based on Decision Support Theory

【作者】 岳谭谭

【导师】 罗凤娥;

【作者基本信息】 中国民用航空飞行学院 , 交通运输规划与管理, 2011, 硕士

【摘要】 我国是世界上拥有特殊高原机场最多的国家,这些机场大多位于我国的西部地区。随着国家西部开发战略的实施及国内市场需求的急剧增加,越来越多的航空公司投入到西部特殊高原航线运营中。然而,特殊高原机场大多地处山区,地形环境复杂,气候环境恶劣,给航空公司签派放行工作带来了诸多困难。本文主要从签派放行的角度,结合特殊高原机场运行特点及特殊要求,建立了签派放行指标体系,并借助决策支持理论提出了一种特殊高原机场签派放行辅助决策方法。首先,本文从气象环境、地理环境、进离场程序环境三个方面完成对特殊高原机场运行环境特点的分析总结,并对签派放行评估项目进行了细致的分析,然后将特殊高原机场运行环境的特点与放行签派员的能力要求相结合,建立层次体系模型,对放行签派员的能力要求展开研究。在此基础之上,结合航空公司特殊高原机场运行特殊要求及运行统计资料,采用专家调查法确定影响特殊高原机场航线签派放行的重要因子。最后,基于决策支持理论,采用模糊决策与层次分析相关理论知识,建立特殊高原机场签派放行综合评判模型,并借助MATLAB完成数据的分析处理,最终得出航班落地概率,达到辅助签派员放行特殊高原机场航班的目的,为今后签派放行决策支持系统的开发提供模型参考与理论支持。

【Abstract】 China is the country possessing the world’s largest number of special plateau airports which are mostly located in China’s western region. Along with the implementation of the western development strategy and the rapidly increase of the domestic market demanding, more and more airlines engage in the airline operations of the western special plateau airports. However, these special plateau airports are mostly situated in mountainous area with complex terrain environment and atrocious weather conditions, which has brought a lot of difficulties to the airlines dispatch.From the point of dispatch release, combing with the operation characteristics and special requirements of special plateau airports, a dispatch release index system was established, and a method of dispatch decision Support for the special plateau airport was proposed by using decision support theory. First, this paper summarizes the operation environment of special plateau airports characteristics from three aspects: the meteorological environment, terrain environment, approach and departure environment. In addition, the paper gives the assessment item of dispatch release a detailed analysis. Then, hierarchical system model was established by combining the characteristics of the special plateau airport operation environment with the capability requirements of dispatchers. The capacity requirements of dispatchers were researched. On this basis, with the operation specific requirements of special plateau airport operating and the operation statistics, the important factors affecting the special plateau airport route dispatch were determined by the experts investigation. Finally, based on the decision support theory, using the knowledge of fuzzy decision-making and hierarchical analysis, comprehensive evaluation model was established, and the complete data was analyzed with MATLAB processing. Eventually the probability of flight landing was worked out for the purpose of assisting dispatchers release the flight to the special plateau airport, and the model reference and theoretical in this paper will be support for the development of dispatch release decision support system.

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