【作者】 陈海燕；

【导师】 沈杰；

【作者基本信息】 南京林业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 天然橡胶与钢铁、石油、煤炭并称为四大工业原料,是国防和工业建设不可缺少的稀缺资源和战略物资。天然橡胶产业是典型的资源约束型、劳动密集型、生态环保型产业,同时还是海南、云南和广东三省垦区的主导支柱产业。随着经济的发展,天然橡胶供需矛盾日益加深,产业组织结构、产业竞争力、产业生存环境和产业对外依存状况都有一定的变化,影响到我国天然橡胶产业的平稳健康发展,因此研究天然橡胶产业安全具有重大的现实意义。本文介绍了综合评价的研究方法,然后以产业安全理论,粮食、农业、钢铁、石油、煤炭等已有的产业安全评价体系及方法为理论基础,分析了影响我国天然橡胶产业安全的因素的基础上,构建了我国天然橡胶产业安全评价指标体系,运用层次分析法设置权重和加乘混合法确定评价模型,用主成分分析法对我国天然橡胶产业安全状况做探索性分析,并根据国际上通行的产业安全标准建立指标警限值,计算产业安全度,得出我国2000-2008年来天然橡胶产业在基本安全与不安全之间徘徊的结论。最后根据各指标评价值波动的变化,提出提高我国天然橡胶产业安全的应对之策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Natural rubber with steel, petroleum, coal which are called four industrial raw materials, and natural rubber is an indispensable scarce resource and strategic material for defense and industrial construction. Natural rubber industry is a typical of resource constraint, labor-intensive, ecological environmental protection industry, and it is still a leading pillar industry for land reclamation districts of Hainan Province,Yunnan Province and Guangdong Province. With the development of economy, the contradiction between supply and demand of natural rubber will be exacerbated gradually. Industrial organization structure, industrial competitiveness, industrial environment and industrial foreign dependence have changed. All of these have affected Chinese natural rubber industry’s development smoothly and healthily. So research of Chinese natural rubber industry security has great and practical significance.This paper emphasize on research about evaluation of natural rubber industry security in China. Firstly, the paper analyzes the theoretical basis of industry security and collects evaluation systems and methods of food, agriculture, steel, oil, coal industry security and so on. Secondly, the paper introduces the current situation of natural rubber industry in the world and China, and then analyzes the influence factors of natural rubber industry security. Thirdly, on the basis of the evaluation index system of related industries and the current situation of natural rubber industry in China, the paper have established evaluation system of natural rubber industry security in China, and then set up the line of indexs according to international practice industry safety standards. Fourthly, the paper comprehensive evaluation about our natural rubber industry comprehensively using of analytic hierarchy process and the principal component analysis method, and then get the conclusion that natural rubber industry security crawl along basic security and insecurity in 2000-2008. Finally, Finally, according to the changing patterns of the evaluated values, the paper provided tactics for how to improve Chinese natural rubber industry security in the future.更多还原