【作者】 王添；

【导师】 朱建君；

【作者基本信息】 南京林业大学 ， 森林工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 住房问题关系着社会安定,关系着百姓的安居乐业,一直是我国政府最为重视的民生问题。但是近年来我国住房市场出现了价格上涨过快,供应结构不合理,供需矛盾突出等一系列问题,引起了全社会的广泛关注。本文试图通过研究住房市场的源头——城市土地供应及其对住房市场的影响,为解决住房市场存在的问题提供决策参考。本论文首先分析了城市土地供应的内涵,接着从供应方式的发展变化、供应主体的发展变化以及供应模式的发展变化三个角度分析了我国城市土地供应的变迁沿革。然后对城市土地供应机制进行了分析,并着重分析了供应量、供应结构和供应方式。本论文从城市土地供应机制中与住房市场相关性最大的供应方式、供应量和供应结构三个方面系统分析了城市土地供应对我国住房市场的影响：①引入了Stackelberg博弈模型分析招拍挂供地方式下住房市场运行机制和地价房价关系,认为应该提高土地供应市场化程度,在地价相对较高的情况下,政府可以在以招标方式供应土地的时候,选择那些能够充分利用土地面积的开发商作为中标人以降低土地价格；②将城市土地供应量和供应结构相关政策与同期房地产市场宏观调控结合起来进行了全面的政策梳理；③利用时差相关性分析对土地供应量作用于住房市场的影响进行了定量分析。最后,本文利用南京土地市场和房地产市场的相关数据,在分析城市土地需求影响因素的基础上,通过相关性分析得到影响城市土地供应的影响因子,运用多元回归分析建立了城市土地合理供应决策模型并对南京市未来几年的土地供应量进行了预测。从理论和实际操作两个方面为解决我国住房市场存在的问题以及促进住房市场健康有序运行提供了有效借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 Our government always make the most of the housing issue,tha’s because the issue concerns the public stability and the people living and working.But in recent years,the housing price have climbed quickly,the housing output structure isn’t reasonable and the contradiction between supply and demand is outstanding.These problems have been concerned by all of society.This paper try to research the urban land supply and it’s impact on housing output market,which is the headstream of housing output market.The writer hopes that it could be of some help in decision for the government to resolve these problem.The paper analyses the connotation of urban land supply. After that, the paper analyses the development and change of urban land supply in terms of he development and change of supply way, supply subject and supply mode.Then the paper analyses urban land supply mechanism and focuses on land supply, supply structure and supply way.The paper analyses systematically the impact of urban land supply on housing output market in terms of land supply, supply structure and supply way:①The paper introduce the Stackelberg gametheoretical model to analyse the operating mechanism of the housing market and the land and housing prices relationship;②The paper summary the policies about urban land supply level and supply structure associated with the same term macro-control of real estate market;③The paper analyses the effect of urban land supply to housing market via Time-Difference correlation analysis. Finally,the paper analyses the factor of influence of land supply by means of correlation analysis on the basis of the analysis of the factor of influence of land demand,using the datas from Nanjing land market and housing market.Then the paper make the model of urban land reasonable supply decision by means of multivariate linear regression analysis.And the paper forecasts the land supply of Nanjing in the next three years.The paper provides valid mirror for resolving these problems of housing market and promoting housing market sound development in China.更多还原