【作者】 陈怡；

【导师】 杨俊；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 产业经济学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 中国在改革开放的三十年来,一方面经济得到迅猛发展,GDP年均增长率高达9.8%;另一方面则在经济高速发展的过程中,付出了很大的资源和环境代价。中国工业化、城市化进程导致的环境污染一直受到广泛关注,其对经济的影响评估已有不少研究成果,但农业生产中产生的环境污染及其对农业经济的影响却未得到社会的足够重视。随着我国农业生产投入的增加,农业生产带来的环境污染越来越严重。现有研究表明,农业污染已成为水体的重要污染源之一,并上升成为威胁饮用水源和水环境安全的重要因素。因此,需要考虑农业污染这一环境因素,重新测算中国农业全要素生产率增长及其构成的变化情况。本文针对农业发展过程中日益严重的环境约束问题,通过把环境因素纳入全要素生产率分析框架,实证分析了环境约束下中国农业生产率增长问题。主要研究内容和主要结论如下:(1)在回顾有关传统全要素生产率研究和数据包络分析方法(DEA)的基础上,介绍了基于环境因素的Malmquist-Luenberge生产率指数的相关概念。(2)基于1999-2008年省际投入产出面板数据,运用方向性距离函数测算了中国30个省(直辖市、自治区)的农业环境技术效率,采用Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数测度了28个省(直辖市、自治区)的农业全要素生产率(TFP)增长,并将其进一步分解为技术进步率指数和技术效率变化指数。同时,将Malmquist-Luenberge生产率指数与农业环境技术效率、农林牧渔业总产值(“好”产出)进行比较分析。(3)将包含环境因素的ML指数与不含有环境因素的Malmquist生产率指数进行比较,考察环境因素对生产率测定的影响。(4)实证结果表明:东部的农业环境技术效率明显高于中、西部,而中、西部的差别很小,中部略低于西部;1999-2008年间各年的ML指数均值都大于1,表明中国农业每年的生产率都在增长;中国农业生产率的改进来源于技术进步,技术效率变化均值为0.997,农业技术效率在轻微退步;忽略环境因素会高估我国的农业生产率增长。最后,在理论与实证分析结果基础上,本文对如何促进中国农业生产率健康发展提出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Thirty years’reform and opening up has witnessed China’s continuous growth in economy, and the annual growth rate of GDP has reached 9.8%. However, the development is attained at the expense of resources and environment. Although pollution issues caused by intensification of industrialization and urbanization have received extensive attention, and the assessment of its impact on the economy has a lot of research, the agricultural pollution and its impact on the agricultural economy in China was ignored sometimes by society. With the increase of agricultural inputs, the pollution caused by agricultural production becomes more and more serious. Existing studies have shown that agricultural pollution has become one of the main sources of water pollution, and a threat to drinking water sources. Thereby, it’s necessary to re-estimate the growth and the composition changes of China’s agricultural total factor productivity. Focusing on the increasingly serious problem of agricultural environmental constraints, this paper analyses the agricultural productivity growth. The main research content and results are as follows:Firstly, on the basis of reviewing the early researches related to traditional total factor productivity and DEA method , this paper introduces the related concepts of Malmquist-Luenberge environmental productivity index.Secondly, we apply the directional distance function to estimate environmental technology efficiency of agriculture in 30 provinces from 1999 to 2008, and use Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index to measure the agricultural TFP growth rate in 28 provinces which was late divided into technological progress index and technical efficiency index. And then compare Malmquist-Luenberge index with environmental technology efficiency of agriculture and good product.Thirdly, compare Malmquist-Luenberge index with Malmquist index to analyze the impact of environmental factor.The results show that: the environmental technology efficiency in east China is much higher than that in middle and west, and the middle environmental technology efficiency is lower than the west. All ML indexes from 1999-2008 are larger than 1, which means the continuous annual growth of China’s agricultural productivity. In addition, the technological progress motivates the improvement of agricultural productivity growth, while the mean technical efficiency is 0.997, which is worse than before. Moreover, we find that if ignoring agricultural pollution, the average annual TFP growth rate would be overestimated.Finally, on the basis of the above findings, the paper proposes some corresponding policy recommendation on promoting healthy agricultural TFP growth.更多还原