【作者】 鲍满园；

【导师】 吴春旭；

【作者基本信息】 中国科学技术大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 3G时代的到来使得中国电信行业的竞争格局发生了很大的变化,在新的经营环境下,运营商该如何调整各自的经营战略,从而让自己的市场占有率得到有效的提高。此时,能否合理的实施客户细分并准确定位客户的市场需求就成为了关键。数据挖掘技术的研究和发展为电信运营商的客户细分提供了有效的方法。K-means算法是数据挖掘中发展较早,应用较为成熟的聚类算法之一,其可以用来发现数据集的分布模式,是数据挖掘领域中一种有效的聚类算法。K-means算法也有明显的不足之处,如在聚类之前必须给定最优K值,初始聚类中心的随机确定使得聚类的结果往往具有较大的不确定性等。本文提出了一种基于距离代价函数的S-K算法,即利用距离代价函数事先确定K-means算法最优K值,弥补了K值必需事先给定的不足;运用SOM神经网络得到初始聚类中心,从而弥补了K-means算法因初始聚类中心随机确定而导致的聚类结果具有很大不确定性的不足,并运用了电信RFM模型来对电信客户群进行更加有效的细分。通过对Iris标准数据集的测试,证明了该算法的有效性。文章的重点是将基于距离代价函数的S-K算法运用在国内某通信运营商的客户细分研究上,得到了较为满意的聚类结果,并以此为运营商提出了具体的具有针对性的营销策略和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the advent of the era of 3G, the competitive situation of the telecommunication industry has drastically changed in China. How should the operators make use of this golden opportunity to make their market share increase effectively and efficiently? Up to now, the question whether the telecom company can conduct rational customer segmentation and accurately target customer demand has become very critical. Fortunately, research and development of Data mining technology can be adopted as an effective approach to the aforementioned question.K-means algorithm is one of the earlier clustering algorithms and has relatively more mature applications in data mining; it can be used to identify the distribution pattern of the data set and therefore has been recognized as an effective clustering algorithm in data mining. Of course it should be acknowledged that K-means algorithm has drawbacks, for examples, the optimal K value should be given before clustering, the random determination of the initial cluster center makes the results uncertain, etc.This paper proposed a S-K algorithm based on the distance cost function, i.e., using a distance cost function in the K-means algorithm for the optimal K value before conducting the clustering; the initial cluster center is obtained using SOM networks rather than being randomly. In the meanwhile, the telecom RFM model is employed to segment telecom customers much more effectively. In sequel, the validity of the proposed algorithm is confirmed through the test of the Iris standard data set. The highlight of the article is the application of S-K algorithm, which is based on the distance cost function, to some telecom company to implement customer segmentation; satisfactory results are derived, which thereby provides more targeted marketing strategies and implications for domestic telecom operation.更多还原