【作者】 郑希林；

【导师】 贾湖； 曹晓梅；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工业工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 项目可行性研究是企业投资决策活动中十分重要的环节。在市场经济条件下,针对投资项目科学地进行分析和预测,合理地确定投资项目的规模、预测项目的经济效益,是企业项目投资成功的可靠保障。本文从北方化工股份有限公司的经营现状及国家化肥产业政策入手,对其南疆大化肥装置增产节能改造项目进行可行性论证。南疆大化肥装置是利用二手设备搬迁建设的。为增加企业竞争力,利用当地丰富的低价天然气资源,依托国家淘汰落后技术、在富资源地区建设化肥装置等产业政策,借鉴国内外大化肥改造的成功经验,结合设备更新对老装置进行增产50%改造,能耗降低至国内先进水平,增量效益显著,实施后将填补北方公司由于辽河化肥厂原料不足造成的减产损失,带动北方公司整体效益增长。本文定量与定性分析结合、动态与静态分析结合,对相关社会、经济、技术等方面进行深入调查,对项目的市场预测、技术方案和建设方案、投资估算和资金筹措、成本估算、销售收入和税金估算等进行了研究论证,编制了项目财务报表,分析投资回收期、净现值、财务内部收益率等相关财务指标,并通过财务评价得出项目可行的结论。本文还用盈亏平衡分析法和敏感性分析法对项目的不确定因素和风险因素进行分析,为企业对本项目的决策立项提供科学客观的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The project feasibility study is a very important part for the enterprise investment decision. Under the market economy, scientifically analyzing and forecasting the project investments, reasonably determining the scales of investment projects and forecasting the economic benefits of the project which could help the enterprise get guarantee of success .In this paper, we analyze and demonstrate the feasibility of the Nanjiang large chemical fertilizer unit energy saving transformation project from the current management situation of the North Chemical Company and the national policy of the chemical fertilizer industry.Nanjiang large chemical fertilizer device is constructed by the transferred second-hand equipments. To increase the competitiveness of enterprises and to use the local rich natural gas resources fully, relying on the national policy of eliminating the backward technology and building fertilizer plant in the resource-rich areas; learning from the successful experiences of large chemical fertilizer transformation both at home and abroad ,making the old device transformation yield increased 50% with equipment update and reduce energy consumption to the advanced level investment in the domestic and getting the remarkably benefit which could fill the material loss reduction by the Liaohe fertilizer of the North company and get the overall effectively economic growth for the company.In this paper we combined with quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis and also combined with dynamic analysis and static analysis, meticulously investigated the social, economic and technical aspects of the project. We also carefully estimated and compared the project’s market forecasts, technology solutions and building programs, investment estimation and funding, cost estimates, estimates of revenue and taxes. We established the basic financial statements of the project and analyzed the payback period of the investment, net present value, internal rate of return and other relevant financial indicators and also made a financial evaluation. This paper also discussed the project uncertainty and risk by means of break even analysis and sensitivity analysis which could provide the enterprise scientific decision-making objectively.更多还原