【作者】 曾璐璐；

【导师】 周云；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 金融学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 消费需求增长乏力一直以来都是制约我国经济增长的瓶颈之一,特别是金融危机以来,我国出口遭受严重冲击,扩大内需就更成为重中之重。在消费需求函数中,资产价值是影响消费支出的重要变量,而房地产和股票又是居民持有资产中的重要组成部分,因而研究房地产和股票资产价格变动对消费支出所带来的影响,对于通过调控资本市场促进经济增长有重要意义。本文在总结和借鉴前人理论分析后,对房地产和股票的资产特性,两个市场的财富效应传导机制等进行研究。并利用1999年1季度至2009年2季度的消费总额,城镇居民可支配收入,上证指数以及商品房平均销售价格的季度数据作为实证研究的基础,运用基于VAR模型的单位根检验,协整检验并建立向量误差修正模型以及脉冲响应函数模型,得到以下结论:我国房地产市场的财富效应很大,长期边际消费倾向(MPC)达到0.50,房地产行业的繁荣对于带动经济增长发挥了积极作用;相较而言,我国股票市场的财富效应相当微弱,长期边际消费倾向(MPC)仅为0.09。本文根据实证结果,基于中国房地产和股票市场自身发展的特点,探析了这种差异性的成因,并为资本市场财富效应的充分发挥提出了相关的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Weak consumer demand has long been a bottleneck of China’s economic growth. Expanding domestic demand has been regarded as the country’s top priority since the global financial crisis severely impacted China’s exports. In the Consumer Demand Function, the value of assets serves as a significant variable to affect the consumer expenditure, while real estate and shares constitute a great portion of the assets hold by residents. Thus a study of the effect on consumer expenditure brought about by the fluctuating prices of real estate and shares will be meaningful to the promotion of economic growth by regulating and controlling the capital market.The thesis, beginning with a summary and examination of previous theories and analyses, studies quantitatively the characteristics of the assets in real estate and stock markets and the transmitting mechanism of wealth effect between the two markets. Grounded upon the seasonal total consumption from the first season of 1999 to the second season of 2009, disposable income of urban residents, Shanghai Stock Index and seasonal averages of commercial house prices, the thesis applies Unit Root Test, Cointegration, Vector Error Correction and Impulse Responses Function based upon VAR model and concludes the wealth effect of China’s real estate market is large, with its long-term Marginal Propensity of Consumption (MPC) reaching 0.50, and contributes to the economic growth while the wealth effect the stock market is fairly weak, of which the long-term Marginal Propensity of Consumption is 0.09.According to the above evidence, the thesis explains, based upon the characters of China’s real estate and stock markets, the cause of the disparity and puts forward policy-making suggestions on the exertion of wealth effect.更多还原