【作者】 曹德军；

【导师】 杨胜刚；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 世界经济， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 上世纪七十年代以来,国际油价波动频繁,逐渐引起世界各国的高度重视,有关学者对国际油价波动的原因进行了大量研究。近期,在次贷危机引发的全球金融风暴背景下,2008年的国际油价出现了大幅波动。那么,经济发展与油价走势的这种同趋势变动是否就说明了两者之间存在着很大的关系呢?本文首先在经济周期性波动对油价波动影响理论分析的基础上探索了经济周期性波动对油价波动的传导机理。然后依据经济周期性波动和油价波动的历史运行情况分析了经济增长、OPEC政策与国际油价之间的关系,探析了经济增长与国际油价走势趋同或者背离的原因及OPEC限产保价、增产保价政策未到达预期目标的原因。并且经过分析发现经济增长与国际油价走势趋同或者背离在不同的时间段呈现不同的特点。在建立世界经济增长率、OPEC日均产量和国际油价的向量自回归模型(VAR)的基础上进行了实证分析,结果表明:在第一阶段,世界经济增长率对国家原油价格的Grange因果关系不成立,在10%的显著性水平下国际原油价格对经济增长率存在单向Grange因果关系;在第二个阶段,世界经济增长率对国际原油价格存在单向Grange因果关系,当世界经济增长率上涨1%时,国际原油价格就会上涨12.12%,且世界经济增长率对油价波动的贡献度大于OPEC的日产量对油价波动的贡献度。比较发现,第一阶段由于OPEC政策对油价的巨大影响造成了实证结果的反向。故本文认为,经济周期具有对油价波动的单向因果关系,即经济周期性波动决定油价波动。最后,本文总结了研究的成果,并针对现实情况提出了相关的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The fluctuation of international oil prices have began to rise since 1970s,attracted most attention around the world. The related professionals have done a large amount of research about the reasons of the fluctuation. Recently in 2008,the international oil prices appeared sharp fluctuations due to the context of the subprime crisis.Therefore, whether there is a considerable correlation trend between economic development and oil prices change or not?Firstly the author has explored the conductive mechanism of the economic cycle fluctuation to oil price volatility on the basis of theoretical analysis. According to the historical operation of economic cycles and oil price fluctuations, the analysis defined the relationship among the economic growth, OPEC policy and international oil price . The author analyzed the reasons for economic growth and convergence or departure with the international oil prices and the reasons why OPEC policy of limitation or increasing of the production in order to protect the price does not reach the expected target.At the same time this article has revealed that economic growth convergence or departure with the international oil price movements showing different characteristics at various time periods. This article has done an empirical analysis based on the establishment a model of vector autoregression (VAR) of international oil price ,the rate of world economic growth and the OPEC daily production. The results stated that, in the first stage,the rate of world economic growth has nothing to do with national crude oil prices when we considering "Grange" relationships,typically at the level of 10% international crude oil prices have a one-way causal infuencing relationship to the rate of economic growth.At the second stage , there is a one-way causal relationship between the rate of world economic growth to the international crude oil prices,when the world economic growth rate rise 1% will lead to the international oil prices rise 12.12%.Moreover, the rate of world economic growth has more contributed to price of fluctuations than the OPEC’s daily output has done.After comparing the reversed empirical results from the OPEC policy making enormous impact on oil in the first stage,the author believes that the economic cycle possessed a one-way causal relationship to the fluctuations in oil prices, which means economic cycle determined the price. Finally,the paper summarized the researching results,concluded the policy of recommendations based on actual situations.更多还原