【作者】 考青鹏；

【导师】 刘金兰；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 信息管理与信息系统， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 企业财务评价预警系统是一种决策支持系统,其通过对宏观经济数据和企业内部数据的分析评价,利用评价指标和发展趋势来预测未来的企业发展状况、度量未来的风险程度,帮助企业管理人员及时预知风险并采取应对措施来规避风险,减少损失。评价侧重于评判企业的历史经营状况,用于判断企业经营战略和其他经营措施有无调整必要。预警则侧重于利用评价结果,及时预知企业有可能面临的经营风险。评价功能和预警功能相辅相成、相互促进。评价预警系统的核心是指标体系。20世纪70年代以前,主要使用基于权责发生制下的传统财务指标构建指标体系,70年代后随着决策有用性会计目标的流行,现金流量的作用越来越受关注。现金流量具有生命周期型、共生性、非均衡性、不易操纵等特性。实践证明,现金流量指标比传统财务指标更能反映企业经营状况。本文介绍了现金流量的相关概念、指标体系的构建原则及方法、企业财务评价理论和企业预警理论,包括模糊综合评价法、层次分析法、单变量预警和多变量预警。并以这些理论为依据,从设计需求、功能架构、技术架构、集成架构、数据库持久层、系统安全等方面深入研究了系统的设计与实现。本文最后以系统在某公司的实际应用为例介绍了系统的部署和运行,系统的运行情况表明基于现金流量设计开发企业财务评价预警系统是可行的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Financial evaluation and early warning system is a decision support system, with the analysis and evaluation on macroeconomic data and internal data, using evaluation indicators to forecast business development and the degree of risk in the future, the system helps companies predict the risk and manage to avoid it to reduce the loss. Evaluation focuses on the evaluation of historical enterprises operating conditions, it is used to determine the necessity of adjusting business strategies and other management. Early warning focuses on forecasting the underlying operational risks in time with the evaluation results. Evaluation functions and early warning functions complement each other. The core of the evaluation and early warning system is the indicator system. Before the 1970s, the indicator system was built as traditional financial indicators based on accrual basis. After that, with the popular of decision usefulness accounting objectives, the function of cash flow got more and more attention. Cash flow has many characteristics such as life cycle type, symbiotic, non-balanced, difficult to manipulation and so on. Practice has shown that cash flow indicators reflect business conditions better than the traditional financial indicators.This thesis introduces interrelated concepts of the cash flow, the principle and method of making up indicator system, the theory of financial evaluation and corporate early warning, including the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, analytic hierarchy process, univariate and multivariate early warning. According to these theory, the thesis gives a detailed introduction on the design and implementation about the design requirements, functional architecture, technical architecture, integration architecture, database persistence layer, system security and so on. Finally, the thesis gives a practical application in a company using this system, generalize from the program’s running result, the system reaches expected results. The development of Financial evaluation and early warning system based on cash flow is feasible.更多还原