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基于信息不确定性的军事运输隐蔽性路径的选择问题研究

The Study on the Path Selection for the Maximum Concealment of Military Transportation Based on the Information Uncertainly

【作者】 陈长军

【导师】 方志耕;

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 , 国防经济, 2010, 硕士

【摘要】 军用物资在运输道路上的分配问题是国防经济中资源分配的一个重要问题。军事运输在军事物流中处于核心地位,军事物流顺畅与否直接取决于军事运输是否顺利。现代战争规模日益扩大,和平时期非常规突发事件亦频频发生,再加上军事科技的进步使得侦察监视手段和武器装备越来越先进,这些都给军事运输提出了更高的要求。为保证军事运输顺利进行,选择科学合理的军事运输路径是关键,而选择隐蔽程度高的路径是降低不确定信息对军事运输不利影响的直接且有效途径。因此,研究信息不确定条件下军事运输隐蔽性路径的选择问题,对于提高军事运输的水平有着重要意义。作者首先阐述了军事运输的概念、特点和重要作用,在此基础上归纳出影响军事运输的不确定信息,揭示了不确定信息条件下选择隐蔽的军事运输路径的重要性;其次,针对应急军事运输的特点,构建了军事运输路径隐蔽性评价指标体系,并在此基础上建立基于灰色评价理论的军事运输最大隐蔽性的路径选择模型;再次,为保证战时军事交通流的分配方案有效并且可行,建立了基于容量约束的军事交通路网流量的最大隐蔽性分配模型;接着,为使军事交通流的分配结果更符合实际路况,充分考虑了路长和路宽的路况信息,建立了基于全路况隐蔽性测度的军事交通流分配模型,并且将研究假设从单始点单终点的特殊情况拓展到多始点多终点的一般情况。最后,论文还就军事运输路径隐蔽性评价指标体系和容量约束研究的不足之处,作者提出了有待深入研究的问题。

【Abstract】 Military supplies distribution in the transportation on the road is an important issue in the resources allocation of national defense economy. Military transportation occupies a central position in military logistics. Military logistics is smooth or not depends directly on military transportation is smooth or not. The scale of modern warfare is expanding, unconventional emergencies also occur frequently in peacetime, the surveillance means and the weapons become advanced increasingly which due to the progress of military science and technology. All these will give military transportation higher requirements. In order to ensure the smooth progress of military transportation, selecting the military transportation path scientifically and reasonably is the key. Yet selecting high concealment degree path is a direct and effective way to minimize the adverse impact of uncertain information on military transportation. Therefore, studying the problem of military transportation hidden path selection under the condition of information uncertainly has an important significance for improving the level of military transportation.First, the author described the concept, features and important role of military transportation. And on these bases, summing up uncertain information of military transportation and revealing the importance of selecting the hidden military transportation path under the condition of information uncertainly. Next, it built an evaluation index system of military transportation path concealment according to military transportation features. And on this basis, it built the path selection model of military transportation for the maximum concealment based on grey evaluation theory. Again, in order to ensure the military traffic assignment program effective and feasible in wartime, it built the traffic assignment model of military traffic road-network for the maximum concealment based on capacity constraints. Then, this paper took full account of the road conditions information including the road length and the road width to enable the assignment result of military traffic more in line with the actual road conditions. It built the military traffic assignment model based on the concealment measure of the entire road conditions, and developed the study hypothesis from the special situation which is a single starting point and a single terminal point to the general situation which is multi-starting points and multi- terminal points. Finally, it also proposed the problem to be in-depth studied contrary to the inadequacies of the study on the evaluation index system of military transportation path concealment and capacity constraints.

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