【作者】 丁叶；

【导师】 朱建军；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 项目承包商评价选择是一件复杂而艰巨的工作,涉及到承包商资质的方方面面,在对承包商进行评价选择时,需要决策者对承包商有一定的认识。随着社会活动越来越复杂,项目的结构也变得越来越复杂,许多评价已经无法由单一决策个体进行,必须依靠群体智慧来实现。同时由于在事物判断上的模糊性及不确定性,决策者往往以不同的形式表示偏好。目前这些不确定形式的决策判断越来越受到专家学者的关注和重视。本文主要通过多种情景下的评价决策方法对项目承包商的筛选进行了分析研究,提出了基于残缺语言评价信息以及基于决策者态度的评价信息等单一决策者情形下的评价决策研究,并研究了基于偏好序的群决策评价方法。在单一决策及群体决策的基础上,对承包商进行初步筛选。以筛选后的承包商为新一轮候选人,对承包商特点进行分析,结合项目的约束条件,提出一种基于任务和承包商特点的多目标任务分配模型,对项目任务选择适合的承包商进行任务分配。主要成果如下:(1)基于残缺语言判断的项目承包商综合能力评价。研究在残缺语言偏好信息下的承包商评价一致性判定,给出一种基于满意一致性的已知信息的修正及残缺信息的挖掘方法。在此基础上,建立求解残缺语言判断矩阵属性权重的规划模型,合理有效的对各个承包商进行排序。(2)考虑不同决策态度的项目承包商评价集结模型研究。针对单一决策者对于不同层次承包商的偏好认识或多个决策者对于不同承包商的偏好认识中的态度问题,给出基于不同决策态度的决策分析方法。研究了含有极端承包商或极端决策者的灰区间语言决策问题。当决策过程中,含有极端承包商或极端决策者时,通过决策者给出的语言判断矩阵,分析查找分界承包商或极端决策者,在一致性基础上,给出判断矩阵中元素的修正方法,建立基于一致性的权重求解模型,对项目承包商进行比较排序。(3)基于偏好序的项目承包商评价的群集结模型研究。针对偏好序形式的承包商评价问题,给出基于决策者排序接近程度的承包商评价分析方法。提出决策者排序一致性的定义方法,根据一致性程度对部分决策者的意见进行反馈使其适当修正自己的排序,提出一种基于排序接近程度的各决策者权重的规划模型方法,求解各个决策者的权重并集结最终的承包商排序。(4)基于多目标的承包商任务分配模型及应用研究。通过对项目任务以及承包商特点进行分析,给出多目标的任务分配方法。对承包商特点进行分析,结合项目的约束条件,提出一种基于任务和承包商特点的多目标任务分配模型,对项目任务选择适合的承包商进行任务分配。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is a hard and complex work to choose or evaluate the project contractors, involves many details of the qualifications. With the increasing complexity of social activities, the project’s structure has become more complex, many evaluations have been carried out not by a single decision-making entity, we must rely on their collective wisdom to achieve. Due to the complexity of decision-making, uncertainty and ambiguity of human thinking, the use of preference information to determine the characterization of complex issues is often unrealistic, uncertainties in decision-making led to widespread concern academics. In this paper, through various forms of evaluation of the decision-making methodology to the project contractor to conduct an analysis of screening studies is proposed based on incomplete linguistic assessment information as well as the attitude of policy makers based on the evaluation of information cases, the evaluation of a single decision-makers decision-making research and study sequence of group decision-making based on preference assessment methods. After the contractor to filter candidates for a new round of contractor analysis of the characteristics, combined with the constraints of the project proposed, based on the characteristics of the tasks and the contractor model for multi-objective task allocation of project tasks to choose a contractor for task allocation.The main results are as follows:(1) the possible value range of the incomplete elements and the method of decision-making based on the incomplete linguistic judgment matrix are studied. Transform the incomplete linguistic preference judgment matrix into numerical preference judgment matrix according to given function, define the relatively consistency of the matrix; analyze the relatively consistency of the matrix, if not fit, amend the known elements until the relatively consistency of the matrix is fit, still, to solve the weights in a given error to gets them in the form of interval numbers, get the final rank with the aid of possibility degree.(2) In the decision-making process, the boundaries of the programs or decision-makers can be found according to the interval linguistic judgment matrix if there are extreme programs or decision-makers; a method of amending the known elements is given based on the consistency of the matrix. Moreover, the weights are also solved in the form of interval number and the programs are compared according to the possibility degree.(3) The aggregating method of preference rank is studied during the process of group decision-making. The consistent degrees of every decision maker’s preference rank and group preference rank are calculated to modify the preference information whose consistent degree doesn’t meet the requirement. Then the weight model is established based on the consistent degree. Moreover, the group decision-making aggregating model is set up based on preference rank. Finally, the model can be solved with PSO algorithm and the result of changes in the scope of allowable deviation can be also studied.(4) Based on multi-objective task allocation research. Through the project tasks as well as analysis of the characteristics of the contractor is given the task of multi-target allocation. Analysis of the characteristics of the contractor, combined with the constraints of the project proposed, based on the characteristics of the tasks and the contractor model for multi-objective task allocation of project tasks select the appropriate contractor assignments.更多还原