【作者】 匡韩斌；

【导师】 刘思峰；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 工业工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着第三次汽车消费的浪潮已经来临,国内市场的购买力不断增强,汽车销售异常火爆。从汽车产业链条逆向推断,销售的增长将带动汽车制造企业的恢复和发展,汽车电子制造业也被相应的带动起来,使得企业的产能大幅扩张。本文以S集团公司生产线产能扩张改造项目为背景,对S集团公司的设备采购方案进行评估。论文首先采用新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对S集团公司三种主导产品未来半年的生产订单进行预测,通过和现有生产能力对比,计算出现有的设备已经无法满足未来的订单需求;其次,根据设备采购方案选择的特点,对S集团公司设备采购评估影响因素分析的基础上,采用因子分析方法,应用Spass软件初始的指标进行有效筛选,并对指标进行了合理化划分,从而构建S集团公司设备采购方案评估指标体系;再次,将AHP和贝叶斯网络模型方法整合,构建了基于AHP-贝叶斯网络的设备采购方案评估模型,并对该模型性质进行了研究;最后,基于AHP-贝叶斯网络的设备采购方案评估模型,对S集团公司设备采购方案进行了评估,计算过程通过软件进行实现,并提出了根据评估过程中信息变化,对评估结果进行调整的方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, with the third wave of automobile consumption, the purchasing power of domestic market is increasing as well as automobile sales market. As adverse inferred from the automobile industry chain, we could make the conclusion that the automotive industry will face greater challenges and opportunities in the near further. In this situation, many automobile manufacturing enterprises could make fast development, so will the automobile electronics industry do. It is a great chance for the enterprises to make a substantial expansion of production capacity so as to meets the increasing requirements of the automobile market. This paper made the evaluation of equipment procurement schemes in the process of the production expansion project in S Group Company.Firstly, the production orders for the next six years of three important products of S Group Company have been predicted by means of grey GM (1, 1) model in this paper. After that, comparing the orders with the production capacity, we could make the conclusion that the equipments of S Group Company can not satisfy the requirements of the market. Secondly, based on the analysis on the influencing factors of equipment procurement in S group company, we make a selection among initial indicators using the method factorial analysis by the software of Spass, and then we constructed the index system of equipment procurement schemes evaluation index system according to the feathers in the process of the selection of equipment procurement schemes. Thirdly, integrating the AHP model and Bayesian Netware model, we put forward a new model called the equipment procurement schemes evaluation model based on AHP-Bayesian Netware, besides we make some research on the properties of the model. Finally, the equipment procurement schemes have been evaluated by means of the model mentioned above, and a kind of software has been designed so as to simplify the processes of calculation, and the evaluation results could be easily adjusted along with the update of the information in the process of evaluation.更多还原