【作者】 祝伟伟；

【导师】 许俐；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 本论文重点研究了地方政府在支持当地航空运输发展的决策方法。本文首先结合我国支线航空运输的实际情况,重新明确了支线航空运输的定义,在此基础上分析了我国目前支线航空的发展现状和趋势。接着提出了在支线机场建设发展中运用最优组合模型进行旅客吞吐量预测,模型采用误差平方和最小为目标函数,确定组合模型的权重系数,本文采用该模型对常州机场的客货吞吐量进行预测,将得到的结果与单一模型预测的结果相比,具有较好的精度。随后提出利用投入产出法和增加值法以评价支线航空运输的经济效益,并以江苏省的支线航空运输为例进行了评价,发现支线机场的间接效益要远远超过它自身所创造的经济效益。对于支线航空运输的社会效益,本文应用专家意见法对其社会效益贡献度进行评价。最后,设计了支线航空运输综合效益评价体系,通过层次分析法(AHP)进行分析,为地方政府提供决策支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper focused on the local government in the development of air transport in support of local decision-making methods. Firstly, this paper put forward to redefine the regional air transport considering air transport in our country’s actual situation, and analyses regional aviation development in China’s current status and trends on this basis. Then put forward to use the optimal combination of model to passenger and cargo throughput in the construction and development of regional airports. The model used the minimum sum of the squared error as the objective function to determine the weight factor of the combination model. This paper used the model to forecast the throughput of Changzhou Airport, the results obtained with a single predicted by the model results were compared with a good accuracy. This paper proposed to use the input-output method and Value Added method to evaluate the economic benefits of regional air transport and uses them to evaluate the benefits of Jiangsu province’s regional air transport finding that the indirect benefits to far exceed the economic benefits created by its own. For the extension of the social benefits of regional air transport, this paper adopted expert opinion method to evaluate its social benefits.Finally, this paper designed evaluation system of the regional air transport comprehensive benefit and provided decision support for local governments by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis.更多还原