【作者】 程花花；

【导师】 郑婷婷；

【作者基本信息】 安徽大学 ， 计算数学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 在当今的世界格局下,对全球气候变化的趋势的研究逐渐成为国际社会关注的焦点。气候变化在人类社会的发展过程占据着重要位置,它直接影响着人类的生存生产,它的任何变化都将直接影响到自然系统和社会生态系统的平衡。如今,以全球气候变暖为中心的氛围下,气候变化将会给人类社会发展带来严重的影响和危害,这也必然影响和制约着我国推行的可持续发展战略。近些年来,人们尝试着用各种方法来研究城市的气候变化趋势,并且取得了重要成果。本文运用了多重分形、联合多重分形以及多重分形消除趋势波动分析法分析安徽省安庆市的部分气象数据资料,得到一些结论如下：(1)运用多重分形理论分析,发现安庆近四十几年的日平均气温与日平均气压均存在多重分形现象,具有分形特性；并且,在过去几十年,日平均气温的多重分形特性强于日平均气压的多重分形特性,日平均气温的波动程度比日平均气压的波动程度强；安庆处在日平均气温较高的机会比处在较低的机会大,处在日平均气压较低的机会比处在较高的机会大,两者的关系是相反的。(2)运用联合多重分形分析安庆的日平均气温与日平均气压的关系,发现当气温较高时,气压处在较低的可能性比较大；当气温较低时,气压处在较高的可能性比较大,这一结论与大气热力环流理论是一致的。(3)采用多重分形消除趋势波动分析法(MF-DFA法)分析安庆最近四十多年的四个季度的日平均气温,发现安庆春秋两季的日平均气温具有较弱的短程相关性,夏冬两个季度的日平均气温具有一定的长程相关性。未来一段时间内安庆的春季和秋季的日平均气温上升的趋势不太明显,与过去有较弱的相反性；未来一段时间内夏季和冬季的日平均气温将可能保持继续上升的状态。简而言之,未来几十年里安庆的春秋两季可能会变的比较凉爽,夏季会变得更加炎热,冬季会变得越来越暖和。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the modern world pattern, the international society pays great attention to the research of global weather change in trend. The weather variety relates to the mankind’s existence and production, which also has serious impact on the mankind social development process, and any varieties of the weather will directly infect the natural system and the social eco-system. Now, under the central atmosphere of that the global weather is becoming warm, the weather variety will bring serious influence and bane to the social development, and it will also infect and limit the sustainable development strategy in our country.In recent several decades, people have tried various useful methods to study the weather variety in trend, and obtained many succeed results. In this paper, it has used multifractal theoy、joint multifractal theory and R/S analysis to analyses the weather data in Anhui province of Anqing city, and has got some useful conclusion to the weathers forecast, which can be listed as follows.(1) Based on multifractal analysis, we find that the air temperature and atmospheric pressure of Anqing have multifractality. Beside that, the multifractality of day average air temperature is stronger than the multifractality of day average atmospheric pressure, and the fluctuation extent of day average air temperature is stronger than the multifractality of day average atmospheric pressure; it also means that the opportunity of Anqing being in high temperature is more possible than Anqing being in low temperature, and the opportunity of Anqing being in low atmospheric pressure is more possible than Anqing being in high atmospheric pressure, both of them are contrary.(2) Based on joint multifractal analysis, it has got the relationship between air temperature and atmospheric pressure, and this conclusion is consistent with thermodynamics theory. When the air temperature is high, the atmospheric pressure is more possible to be low; when the air temperature is low, the atmospheric pressure is more possible to be high.(3)It has used multifractal and detrended fluctuation analysis method, to analyses the seasonal average temperature of Anqing in recent several decades, and find that the day average air temperature in spring and autumn has short range correlation, and in summer and winter has long range correlation. In other words, the trend of temperature in spring and autumn of future is weakly opposite to the past, the temperature in them will not be possible to rise. The trend of temperature in summer and winter of future will continue to rise. In a word, in the future of several decades, the weather of Anqing in spring and autumn will become cooler, in summer will become hotter and in winter will become warmer.更多还原