【作者】 傅春光；

【导师】 王敬敏； 李长春；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 项目管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 经济社会的快速发展对作为重要性产业的电力工业发展尤其是电网发展提出了更高的要求。电力工业是关系国计民生的基础产业,承担着促进国民经济发展的重要任务。我国电网存在的问题,如结构薄弱,特别是500kV网架在大部分电网中尚未真正形成,电网的安全性差,可靠性低,自动化水平不高,电网调峰容量不足,损耗大,供电质量差等,也严重制约着我国电力工业的发展。多年来,电网建设项目风险评价工作由于受到诸多障碍因素的影响始终没有得到足够重视。电网项目的建设是一项综合性、专业性、技术性的活动,找出风险因素,对风险进行综合评价,实施相应的风险应对措施是非常重要的。本文依据电网建设项目风险识别原理,按照一定的识别原则,采用科学合理的识别方法,结合国家电网建设方案,依据一定的指标构建原则,构建电网建设项目风险评价指标体系,并详细阐述电网建设项目风险影响因素。鉴于电网建设项目风险因素的不确定性和贫信息,在灰色系统理论的基础上,结合层次分析法建立电网建设项目风险评价模型——灰色层次分析法,充分利用层次分析法和灰色白化权函数这两种风险评价方法对电网建设项目风险进行评价,依据得出的项目综合评价值结合实际电网建设项目的风险水平来对其风险加以重新认识,为项目风险管理者制定相应的风险应对策略和规避措施提供理论参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important industry, the power industry has been put forward higher requirements by the rapid development of economy and society, especially the development of power grid. Power industry is the people’s livelihood, basic industries, undertaking the important task of promoting national economic development. However, our power grid problems, such as the weakness of the structure, especially most of the 500kV power grid not really taken shape, poor network security and reliability ,low level of the automation, lack of power peaking capacity, loss of large and poor power quality, but also severely restricts the development of China’s power industry. Over the years, the risk evaluation of grid construction projects due to the impact of various barriers has not received enough attention. Construction of power projects is a comprehensive, professional, technical activities.so it is very important to identify risk factors , to evaluate the risk comprehensively and implement appropriate risk response.According to principles of risk identification for the grid construction projects and certain principles of identification, the article uses a scientific and reasonable identification method. According to the national power grid construction programs and certain principles of indicator construction, build the risk evaluation index system of the power grid construction project and describe the risk factors of the power grid construction project in detail. View of the uncertainty and poor information of the risk factors of the power grid construction project, combined the analytic hierarchy process and the gray system theory to establish the risk assessment model of the grid construction project- gray-level analysis, full use of AHP and gray whitening weight function the two risk assessment methods for power grid construction project risk assessment, based on the value of comprehensive evaluation of the project and combined with the level of risk of the actual network construction projects to re-understander their risk, provided a theoretical reference for the risk manager to develop the appropriate risk response strategies and measures for the project.更多还原