【作者】 闫宁；

【导师】 李伟；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着人们环保意识的增强及节能减排的开展,相比其他新能源风电清洁无污染,技术发展比较成熟,投资灵活,资源丰富,具有良好的经济效益和社会效益,得到了众多国家及地方政府的支持,因此风电开发就成为投资开发商关注的重点项目。风电投资愈演愈烈,但是我们也必须清楚的认识到,我国现阶段的风电开发技术与发达国家相比还存在一定的差距,尚处于风电发展的初级阶段经验不足,在开发建设运营过程中将会遇到很多风险,这需要我们加以重视以保证风电项目的经济社会效益。基于此考虑,本文对风电项目投资进行详细的风险分析评价研究,以期对风电投资有所贡献。本文首先介绍了风电发展概况及风电项目投资的成本组成,论述了风电项目风险的概念及其特点,并详细评述了风电项目风险分析评价的相关理论及评价方法模型;在风险分析方面,首先在分析风力发电项目特点的基础上,对风电项目的各阶段进行风险因素识别,进而构建了比较完善的风险评价指标体系;在指标体系构建完成以后,综合传统风险评价方法的优缺点,根据风电项目风险因素的特点,文章整合多种风险评价方法,建立基于区间变权的相对模糊差异度风险评价模型。首先利用区间变权重的方法确定各级指标的权重,然后利用相对模糊差异度改进模糊综合评价模型,并将其应用到内蒙古某风电项目风险评价中去,验证了该模型的实用性和可行性,并提出了相应的风险防范对策。最后总结了文章的研究成果创新之处,并指出了本文对风电项目风险评价研究的不足之处及后续研究的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 With awareness of environmental protection and carry out energy saving, wind energy technology is relatively mature, investment flexibility, resource-rich, with good economic and social benefits compared to other new clean pollution-free, received many national and local government support, investment in wind power development has become the focus of the project developer.Play pang more investment in wind power, but we must also clearly understand that China’s current wind power development technologies there is still a gap compared with developed countries, is still in the early stage of development of wind power lack of experience in the development and construction. The process will encounter many operational risks, which need our attention. Therefore, this article carried out a detailed evaluation of the risk analysis on wind power project investment.This paper introduced the overview of the development of wind power and wind power project investment cost components, discussed the concept of wind power project risk and characteristics, and a detailed review of the wind power project risk analysis and evaluation of relevant theories and evaluation models; In risk analysis, The first analysised of the wind power projects on the various stages of risk factor identification based on characteristics of wind power projects, and then builded a more complete risk evaluation index system; After the index system of completed, integrated the advantages and disadvantages of traditional risk assessment methods of wind power projects based on the characteristics of risk factors, the paper integrated a variety of risk assessment methods, established the relative difference degree of fuzzy risk assessment model based on interval variable weight. Firstly, we used interval variable weight method to determine the weight of indicators at all levels, and then use the relative difference in degree of fuzzy to improve the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and apply it to a wind power project in Inner Mongolia in the risk assessment to verify the practicality and feasibility of the model, and proposed the corresponding risk prevention measures. Finally, the article summarized the results of research innovation, and pointed out the inadequacies and direction for further research on risk assessment of wind power projects.更多还原