【作者】 牛柏川；

【导师】 王志杰；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 桥梁与隧道工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着近年来隧道及地下工程领域进入高速发展期,伴随项目各个阶段的事故风险呈现出活跃状态。尤其是在隧道与地下工程的施工阶段,风险事故的发生率相对较高,伴随的经济损失和人员损失给社会的各个领域带来了较大的负面影响。因此,针对该阶段出现的风险事件和伴随风险做出相应的评估和管理研究显得尤为重要。本论文以公路项目“泰宁至建宁(闽赣界)高速公路泰宁隧道”为依托,对泰宁隧道施工阶段存在的风险进行分区辨识,借助层次-模糊综合法进行分析,得出相应的风险发生概率及风险损失等级,对现场施工组织及风险规避具有一定的借鉴意义,具体的工作体现在以下几点：1、结合隧道项目的工程实际、现场的施工情况、地质勘察报告、图纸、实施性施工组织设计及相关规范,对评估对象进行分段。2、采用专家调查法统计得出各个分区的风险因素,建立风险指标评价体系,并利用层次分析法对各个分段中出现的各个风险事件进行权重计算及排序。3、针对各个分段的风险事件,采用模糊评价法对各个分段进行风险概率评价,并结合专家调查法得到的风险损失等级,作出最终的风险等级评价。4、依据以上得到的各个分区等级风险,对高度及以上风险段提出相应的风险规避措施及建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the rapid development of the tunnels and underground Engineering, risks during various stages are activated. Especially in construction stage, the incidence of risk iselatively high. Thus, negative impacts are brought to all areas of the society because of the economic and personal losses. As a result, the research on the assessment and management of the risks is particularly important.In the paper, based on the Taining Tunnel, the Divisional Identification of the risks in construction stage is done. Then based on Hierarchical Fuzzy Comprehensive Method, the probability of the risk and degree of risk loss are gotten. Therefore, we could get some reference. The conclusions are shown as follows:1、According to the geological investigation report, Drawing, criterion, and the Method statement, the evaluation object is divided.2、Based on specialists method, the risks of every division are gotten. And the risks are sorted by Analytical Hierarchy Process.3、Aimed at the risks, risk-analysis indexes system is established respectively. Then based on Fuzzy evaluation method, the probability of the risk is gotten. What’s more, with the level of the risk loss gotten by the specialists method, the final Safety Risk Rank Evaluation is given.4、According to the results, the countermeasure and suggestion are given to the parts with high risks.更多还原