【作者】 姜敩闻；

【导师】 罗霞；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 对于交通流监控和诱导系统来说,交通流状态辨识和交通流短时预测是其中最为关键的组成部分之一。这些子系统性能的好坏,直接关系到交通流监控及诱导系统的准确性和有效性。因此,在ITS技术的基础上,对这两个部分进行研究,具有十分重要的现实意义。文章首先分析了交通流的主要特征参数,并研究了各种参数的监控方法,并在此基础上,讨论了交通流信息监测中存在的几个难点和解决方法；之后,在对交通流状态辨识和交通流短时预测技术进行分析的基础上,详细研究了基于支持向量机的交通流状态辨识技术和交通流短时预测技术,对于交通流状态辨识的系统框架、数据处理方法、交通流短期预测的系统框架、数据处理方法都进行了研究,并引用实例进行了验证分析。文章研究发现支持向量机在小样本容量的分类问题上表现良好,泛化能力较强,在合理的参数下精度较高；而在回归的应用中视样本数据的质量,精度有波动,但是依然在一定精度下可以完成数据的拟合工作。研究结果表明,支持向量机在交通流状态辨识技术和交通流短期预测技术中存在现实的应用价值,并且其准确性、精度和推广能力都达到了一定的要求,结果是可信且有效的。应用支持向量机技术的交通流管控系统不仅在理论上可行,现实中也可推广应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 For traffic flow monitoring and guidance system, traffic flow state identification and traffic flow forecasting are one of the most critical component of it. The quality of the performance of these subsystems is directly related to the accuracy and effectiveness of it. Therefore, based on the ITS technology, the study of these two parts is of great practical significance.The article firstly analyzes the main features of traffic flow parameters, and the method of monitoring of various parameters. On this basis, several difficulties and the solutions in monitoring of traffic flow information are discussed. Later on, based on the analysis of the identification of the state of traffic flow and traffic flow forecasting techniques, a detailed study of support vector machine based traffic state recognition technology and traffic flow forecasting technology has been done. The traffic flow system framework of state identification, data processing, traffic flow short-term forecasting system framework, data processing methods were studied and cites examples to validate analysis. Article found that support vector machine in the classification of the small sample size performs well and has high precision in reasonable parameters. While the application of the regression, as the sample data quality, accuracy changes, but the work still can be done under a certain accuracy of data fitting.The results show that support vector machine has actual value in the recognition technology in the state of traffic flow and traffic flow short term forecasting techniques. Its accuracy, precision and generalization ability meet the certain requirements, the results are credible and effective. Application of support vector machine control system of traffic flow is not only theoretically possible, but also can be generalized in reality.更多还原