【作者】 陈聪聪；

【导师】 李映红；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济的不断发展,城市规模的不断扩大,居民出行方式不断多样化,城市交通拥堵问题已经成为亟待解决的社会问题。在地面交通方式无法解决城市交通问题的情况下,城市轨道交通的发展对缓解城市交通问题起到了重要的作用。近几年我国的城市轨道交通发展迅速,为了缓解成都市交通压力,成都市规划了七条地铁线,已经运营地铁一号线。城市轨道交通的建设是一项长期的、投资较大的、综合性强的建设,所以必须进行合理的规划和科学的客流预测工作。城市轨道交通客流预测具有局限性,所以结合城市实际情况进行客流预测的研究有很重要的实际意义。本文认为轨道交通客流的预测应该以传统的“四阶段法”为基础,根据成都市轨道交通的实际特点,进行改进来适应现阶段的工作。本文首先对城市轨道交通的客流进行了分析,进而结合成都市的实际情况,分析了成都市轨道交通的客流。其次,本文对于预测方法进行了概述,详细阐述了四阶段法,并且建立了基于成都市的轨道交通方式划分模型。最后本文以成都地铁3号线的客流预测工作为实例,分析了成都市居民出行情况,在进行预测时,按照“四阶段法”的四个步骤针对成都分布建立了模型,运用交通规划软件TransCAD进行了客流预测,最后得出了成都市地铁3号线的客流分布情况。在最后部分对文章的研究成果做了总结,对研究的不足做了陈述,为后续研究打下了基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the economical development, the city scale expands, the diversification of the people’s travel mode, the condition of transportation jamming has become the universal social question. The development of the city urban rail transit plays an important part as the sole ground transportation way to be unable to solve the municipal transportation question.In recent years, the city urban rail transit has a rapid development in our country. In order to relieve traffic pressure, Chengdu has planned seven subway lines, chengdu metro line 1 has been in operation. The reasonable programming and scientific forecast about passenger flow is important in the construction of the city urban rail transit because of some characteristics:years of programming, highly cost, numerous fields. At present our country urban rail traffic volume forecast theory have limitations, so the actual situation with urban passenger traffic forecast study has important practical significance.This paper argues that urban rail traffic volume forecast should be based on the traditional "four terrace works " as the foundation, according to chengdu urban rail traffic actual characteristic, improvements to adapt to current work. In this paper,we analyzed the passenger flow of urban rail at first, then analyzed the chengdu passenger rail traffic with chengdu actual situation. Secondly, this paper summarized the method of forecasting, established rail transportation partition model based on chengdu Established in this paper based on the purpose of dweller travel generation, prediction model in trip distribution models will gravity model is improved, which meet the practical needs. In the traffic distribution and distribution model are introduced the strategy competition relations union way division, this paper studies the conventional public traffic and urban rail traffic competition model. Finally, this paper with chengdu metro line 3 of the passenger flow forecast work as an example of the above relevant research and model teaching practice. In the forecast, according to "four terrace works " four steps of the actual situation in chengdu respectively established the model, it is concluded that the chengdu metro line 3 passenger flow distribution. In the last part, the paper summarizes the research achievements of research, the shortcoming of the statements, and lay the foundation for follow-up study.更多还原