【作者】 鲁波涛；

【导师】 范莉莉；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国人均收入的不断提高,人们对精神文化方面的需求也越来越大,我国的产业经济结构也逐步向第三产业倾斜,由于我国地大物博,旅游资源较多,旅游业作为一个朝阳产业在第三产业中的作用日趋重要,现已成为各地方政府大力发展的产业,而四川省有“天府之国”的美誉,其丰富的旅游资源为四川省的经济发展起了很大的推动作用。本文通过运用旅游经济学,产业经济学,计量经济学中的协整理论和误差修正模型定量分析了四川省旅游直接收入与四川省经济增长之间关系以及四川省旅游直接收入与四川省第三产业就业人数之间的关系,协整模型统计上的高度相关性表明四川省旅游业发展与经济增长和第三产业就业人数都具有长期的正相关关系,说明旅游业发展对经济增长起到了积极的促进作用,并且对第三产业的就业也有很大贡献。格兰杰因果检验的结果表明短期内,旅游业发展和经济发展是相互促进的,即经济发展带动旅游业发展,同时,旅游业的发展也促进了经济的发展。但是旅游业与发展与第三产业就业人数不存在格兰杰双向因果关系,即旅游业发展会增加第三产业就业人数,但反之不真。误差修正模型的结果反映了短期内经济波动是如何向长期均衡调整的方式。鉴于四川省旅游发展的这些正面经济效应,本文最后提出了如何更好的发展四川省旅游业的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With rising average income in China, people’s demand on spirit and culture become lager and larger, and China’s industrial economy has gradually turned to the third industry.Due to our vast land, more tourism resources, tourism as a sunrise industry in the third industry play an increasingly important role and has become the crucial industry to government develop.Meanwhile, Sichuan is "a land of abundance", and its rich tourism resources greatly promote the economic development of Sichuan Province.By employing industrial economics, cointegration theory and error correction model in econometrics,we quantitatively analized the direct relationship between economic effect and the Sichuan Provincial Tourism revenue in Sichuan. The cointegration model statistically highly implies that tourism development and economic growth of Sichuan Province has a long-term positive correlation. The development of tourism has played a positive role in promoting economic growth .Granger causality test results shows that in the short term, tourism development and economic development are mutually reinforcing, that is, economic development promoted tourism, while tourism also promoted economic development. Error correction model results reflect the short-term fluctuations in the economy how to adjust to the way of long-run equilibrium. Given the importance of tourism development in Sichuan Province, the paper concludes with policy recommendations how to better develop tourism of Sichuan Province.更多还原