【作者】 马景灏；

【导师】 殷克东；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 数量经济学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 伴随人类开发利用海洋,不断向深度和广度进军,海洋对人类的贡献将越来越大。与此同时,海洋灾害所造成的经济损失,也必将逐步升级。中国是世界上自然灾害严重的少数国家之一,不但灾害类型多,而且频度高、强度大,造成的社会经济损失也极其严重。同时我国又是典型的海洋大国,风暴潮灾害是我国沿海的主要海洋灾害。近年来,我国海洋经济增长迅速,2009年全国海洋生产总值31964亿元,同比增长8.6%,占沿海地区国内生产总值的15.5%,占全国GDP的9.53%。伴随经济的迅猛发展,风暴潮灾害对社会经济的影响日趋严重。20世纪90年代以来,由于沿海经济迅速发展,人口急剧增加,遭灾损失急速上升,每年竟高达百亿元以上。根据中国海洋灾害公报,2009年我国累计发生132次风暴潮、海浪和赤潮过程,其中33次造成灾害,其中风暴潮灾害造成直接经济损失84.97亿元。风暴潮灾害的频繁发生,给沿海地区的社会、经济发展带来了巨大压力。因此,加强风暴潮防灾减灾,尤其是开展风暴潮灾害的灾情监测、致灾规律、灾害影响预警研究,对国家的可持续发展和社会主义和谐社会的建设都具有重要的意义。目前受一些主客观条件的限制对于风暴潮灾害的研究基本上都是针对自然因素,而针对经济社会因素的则较少。论文在风暴潮灾害相关知识梳理基础上,界定了风暴潮灾害经济预警的定义,通过对风暴潮灾情灾害影响因素分析,建立风暴潮灾害预警指标体系。基于综合统计评估方法和经济预警理论对风暴潮灾害等级进行了划分和经济损失预警模型的建立。同时选取中国海典型地区进行风暴潮灾害经济损失预警的实证分析。论文主要包括六个部分,结构如下:第一部分为中国海典型区域风暴潮灾害经济预警相关概念的界定,主要包括三个部分:风暴潮灾害相关概念界定,经济预警相关概念界定,风暴潮灾害经济预警。第二部分是风暴潮灾害经济预警理论基础,主要包括四个理论:灾害管理学、灾害经济学、系统论、经济预警模型理论。第三部分是风暴潮灾害预警指标体系研究,通过一定的建立原则和选取方法,建立了一个包含21个三级指标和87个四级指标的指标体系。这些指标能较全面、科学、系统反映风暴潮灾害的情况,指标体系的建立为整个研究打下了坚实的基础。第四部分在风暴潮灾害经济预警指标体系中,选取了12个比较重要的指标,在此基础上基于熵值法和主成分分析法对风暴潮灾害损失等级进行了划分,通过灰色关联分析法、计量经济学方法、人工神经网络技术方法建立了风暴潮灾害经济综合预警模型。第五部分是在综合预警模型的基础上对堤坝损毁、房屋受损、农田损失、受灾人口、直接经济损失、养殖受损六个具体灾情的损失进行了预警。第六部分是总结与展望,对本文进行了总结并对下一步的工作进行了思考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Contribution from Marine to human will become greater and greater. Accompanied by mankind’s continuously exploiting marine. Meanwhile, economic losses caused by Marine disasters will upgrade gradually . China is one of the few countries in the world which suffers many kinds of serious natural disasters with high frequency and intensity. While China is the typically marine great power ,storm surge disaster is the main Marine disaster in China’s coastal. In recent years, China’s Marine economy is growing rapidly. Marine GDP reached 31964 billion yuan in 2009 with an increase of 8.6% which accounted for 15.5% of GDP in coastal areas and also the 9.53% of GDP. Along with the rapid development of economy, storm surge disaster on the social and economic influence becomes more and more serious. Since the 1990s, annual calamity loss has reached as high as 10 billion yuan with a rapidly growing because of rapid economic development and population increasing dramatically. According to China’s Marine disaster communique, storm surge, waves and redtide process accumulatively happened 132 times in China in 2009, in which direct economic loss caused by storm surge disaster was 84.97 billion yuan.The frequent occurrence from storm surge disaster has brought great pressure to social and economic development in coastal areas. Therefore, it has important significance for the sustainable development and the construction of the socialist harmonious society that we should strengthen the storm surge disaster prevention and mitigation in storm surge disaster, especially the disaster monitoring, disaster influences of hazard -formative rules and the state’s early warning research.At present because of the limit of some subjective and objective conditions ,researches on storm surge disaster are largely about natural factors, while the economic and social factors of lower.This paper based on the knowledge of storm surge disaster defines the definition of storm surge disaster economic early-warning and establishes the storm surge disaster warning index system through analyze the influential factors of storm surge disaster disasters. It classified the level of the storm surge disaster and establishes the early-warning model of economic loss based on comprehensive evaluation method and the economic theory of storm surge disaster. Meanwhile it makes a empirical analysis on economic loss of storm surge disaster in China sea typical areas. This thesis mainly includes six parts, structure is as follows:The first part is the definition of related concept of storm surge disaster economic early-warning in China sea typical regions.It mainly includes three parts: storm surge disaster related definitions, economic warning related definitions, storm surge disaster economic warning.The second part is the storm surge disaster economic warning theoretical basis, mainly including four theories: disaster management, disaster economics, system theory and economic early-warning model theory.The third part is the storm surge disaster warning index system. We establish a index system contains 48 secondary indexes and 87 3- level indexes through certain principles and methods for selecting. These indexes can more comprehensive, scientific, systematic reflect on the storm surge disaster, establishment of index system lay a solid foundation to the whole study .In the fourth part ,we choose 12 important indexes from storm surge disaster economic early-warning index system.Based on these we classified the storm surge disaster loss level by using method of entropy and principal component analysis.We establish the storm surge disaster economic loss comprehensive early warning model through the gray correlation analysis method, econometric methods, the technique of artificial neural network method.The fifth part is make the early-warning to the dam damaged, roof damage, loss of farmland, the affected population, direct economic losses, breeding damaged six specific disaster losses based on the comprehensive warning model.The sixth part is the summarize and outlook.It makes a summarize to the article and a thinking to the next job.更多还原