【作者】 唐磊；

【导师】 于谨凯；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 产业经济学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 文章全面分析产业安全概念,对产业安全及预警机制相关理论进行梳理归类。借鉴并修正数据包络法,确定用以测算我国海洋船舶业安全度的方法。基于对海洋产业安全评价方法以及预警机制,结合我国海洋船舶业安全影响因素,构建评价我国海洋船舶业的产业安全评价指标体系。基于海洋船舶业安全评价模型,结合海洋船舶业数据的可得性,文章对1999年-2008年间的海洋船舶业安全度进行测算。计量分析结果得到1999年和2006年我国海洋船舶业处于安全状态,2000年至2003年我国海洋船舶业存在一定的安全隐患,2004年至2008年由于世界经济和贸易形势好转,海洋船舶业市场供求均衡,我国海洋船舶业安全是比较安全的。针对我国海洋船舶业处于比较安全和危机的年份,基于MATLAB软件的处理结果,构建我国海洋船舶业新的决策单元,提出相应年份所应调整的生产要素投入量和产出量。从影响产业安全的内部因素和外部因素两方面综合考虑,全面分析影响我国海洋船舶业安全的要素,建立适合我国海洋船舶业的安全预警指标体系,使用DEA方法,构建我国海洋船舶产业安全预警机制。第一章,产业安全及预警机制相关理论。文章对产业安全概念进行界定,对国内外相关产业安全和预警理论进行梳理和分析。第二章,产业安全及预警机制的评价方法。文章基于产业安全评价体系的构建原则,对目前最有代表性的产业安全评价指标体系、产业安全预警机制以及产业安全指标处理方法进行比较分析。由于海洋船舶业系统是一个多输入多输出的复杂系统,而对于复杂产业系统的安全度评价而言,DEA不失为一种好的评价方法。第三章,海洋船舶业安全评价的DEA模型构建。对DEA原始理论模型进行分析,综合考虑海洋船舶业技术创新对产出的滞后效应,改进DEA理论模型。基于海洋船舶业安全评价原则,设计海洋船舶业安全评价指标体系,构建海洋船舶业安全评价DEA模型。第四章,我国海洋船舶业安全评价实证研究。根据海洋船舶业安全评价指标体系和数据的可得性,本文选择对海洋船舶业十年产业安全状况进行分析,即以1999年-2008年的海洋船舶业产业安全状况为评价对象,运用MATLAB软件计量分析我国海洋船舶业的安全状态。第五章,我国海洋船舶业预警机制建立。确定我国海洋船舶业安全预警运行目标,从产业内部和外部两个层面全面分析我国海洋船舶业安全的影响因素,构建海洋船舶业预警体系。第六章,对策建议。针对我国海洋船舶业发展中存在的问题,提出相应的对策建议。第七章,结论和展望。这一章对本论文的基本内容进行总结,指出论文存在的不足,并对以后的研究与学习做出设想与展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzes the industry safety concept comprehensively, classifies the industrial safety theory and warning mechanism theory. By referencing and correcting the Data Envelopment Analysis method, we calculate the safety value of China’s marine shipbuilding industry. Considering the safety factors of China’s marine shipbuilding industry, this paper constructs the safety assessment index system of China’s marine shipbuilding industry, based on the safety evaluation method and warning mechanism of marine industry.Based on the safety assessment model of the marine shipbuilding industry, this paper calculates the safety value of the marine shipbuilding industry between 1999 and 2008. The econometric analysis results show that China’s marine shipbuilding industry is safe in 1999 and 2006; but from 2000 to 2003, there are certain safety hazards in our marine shipbuilding industry; due to improvement of the world economic and trade condition, it is in a comparative safety from 2004 to 2008. According to the MATLAB software processing results, we constructed new decision unit of China’s marine shipbuilding industry, put forward that the corresponding year which is comparative safe and unsafe should adjust the productive input and output elements.Considering the internal and outer factors affecting the industrial safety, we analysis the elements affect the marine shipbuilding industry safety comprehensively, establish the safety warning index system suitable for China’s marine shipbuilding industry, construct the safety pre-warning system by using DEA method.Chapter 1, the related industry safety and warning mechanism theory. The article definite the industrial safety concept, classifies the industrial safety theory and warning mechanism theory.Chapter 2, the safety assessment model of the marine shipbuilding industry and warning mechanism. This article analysis the most representative industrial safety evaluation index system, industry safety warning mechanism and industrial safety index processing method, based on the constructing principle. As the marine shipbuilding system is a complex system with multiple inputs and output, DEA is a good evaluation method for evaluating the safety value of complex system.Chapter 3, establish DEA safety assessment model. In this part, we analyze the original DEA model, and revise it for considering lag effect the marine technology innovation on output. We designed the safety assessment index system of China’s marine shipbuilding industry, based on the safety evaluation principle, and construct the DEA model for safety evaluation.Chapter 4, empirical study of China’s marine shipbuilding industry safety evaluation. According to the safety assessment index system of the marine shipbuilding industry, we choose the safety situation of China’s marine shipbuilding industry from 1999 to 2008 as the evaluation objects.Chapter 5, establish warning mechanism of China’s marine shipbuilding industry. Make sure the pre-warning operation target of China’s marine shipbuilding industry, considering the internal and outer factors affecting the industrial safety, construct the safety pre-warning system.Chapter 6, countermeasures and proposals. According to the problems in China’s marine shipbuilding industry, put forward corresponding countermeasures.Chapter 7, conclusion and prospects. This chapter elaborates on the major contents and conclusions of this paper, points out the insufficient and clears the further research direction and gives the prospects.更多还原