【作者】 童喆；

【导师】 黄卫东；

【作者基本信息】 南京邮电大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 2010年夏天罕见的东北洪灾,甘肃特大山洪泥石流地质灾害又一次让我们真切地感受到,在重大威胁和灾难面前我们这个社会系统仍然非常脆弱。制定正确合理应急预案,实现高效快速地应急响应机制,是提高应急管理能力的必要手段。由于文字型预案在编制时缺乏实践证明和检验,在实际应用时出现了很多问题,因此构建规范化可视化的数字化预案已成为当务之急。为了更好的利用信息技术支持应急管理,使应急预案在应急处置实践过程中发挥更大的作用,需要对应急预案进行流程化分析。如何将应急业务流程从信息处理的角度进行抽象,用形式化的可处理和分析的方式表示出来,从而反映应急预案业务流程的静态特征以及动态行为,已成为应急预案的系统化和数字化研究的重点课题。论文结合国家自然科学基金项目:基于环境感知的应急响应知识需求研究(项目编号:70871061),针对目前应急预案形式化及流程化研究中所遇到的问题和困难,将Petri网应用于工作流领域的建模理论引入到应急预案业务流程管理中,系统而深入地研究了基于Petri网的应急预案业务流程模型的构建,并利用计算机支持工具对模型进行验证,最后给出了性能评价算法,对模型的相关性能指标进行评价。论文的主要研究内容如下:(1)构建应急预案业务流程CPN层次模型,在设计了应急预案业务流程模型构建与分析的框架的基础上,对其中每一步工作如何展开的思路进行了简单介绍;在此基础上对应急预案业务流程的需求来源及流程进行探讨分析,随后给出环节的流程设计;使用CPN Tools工具,对各环节流程进行基于着色Petri网的模型构建,并对模型进行了详细分析和描述(2)构建了火灾事故应急预案业务流程实例模型并进行性质验证。结合火灾型应急预案,利用CPN Tools对其相关行为属性进行了验证,证明了所构建的模型在逻辑上是不仅是有效的,而且是行为良好的,为下文基于随机Petri网的应急预案业务流程模型的性能分析奠定了研究基础。(3)对模型性能做出分析评价。给出有界Petri网性能分析算法,通过构造可达图模型,并构建对应的马尔科夫链,得出转移速率矩阵,并通过对模型中各可达状态的稳态概率的计算,分析模型中库所繁忙概率及变迁利用率等相关性能指标,最后根据各指标数据对模型性能提出评价分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rare disaster of flood in Northeast China and the heavy mountain torrents and debris flow in Gansu province in 2010 tell us that our social system is still very vulnerable in the face of the heavy threat and disaster again. In order to enhance the ability of emergency management, it’s very necessary to formulate correct and reasonable emergency plan and establish efficient and fast emergency response mechanism. Lots of problems turn out when textual emergency plans are applied in practice because the plans are lack of practical proof and verification. In order to better utilize information technology to support emergency management and make emergency plans play a more important role in the process of emergency handling, emergency process analysis is very important. The problem about how to represent emergency process in the method of formalization, which should be abstracted from the perspective of information treatment, has become one of major research projects in the emergency systematization and digitalization.With the support from the item of National Nature Science Foundation of China(No.70871061), regarding representation formalism of emergency plan as starting point, the paper introduces workflow modeling theory based on Petri nets to emergency business process management, and make research on the model establishment based on Petri nets. Furthermore, the property verification and performance analysis are discussed.(1) Emergency business process CPN hierarchical model is established. In the basis of designed the framework of model establishment and analysis, each step of working thought is briefly introduced. Then the requirements sources of emergency plan business process are discussed and analyzed, and the process of each step is designed. Furthermore, with the support of CPN Tools, the process model is established based on colored Petri nets, and the details about the model are analyzed.(2) Fire accident emergency plan business process model is established and the property verification is completed. Combined with the character of fire accident emergency plan, the case model is proposed. CPN Tools is used for make property verification, and the results show that the model is not only logically true, but also is good in behavior.(3) Performance analysis of the case model is made. Firstly the performance analysis algorithm is designed. Through establishing the covering tree model and corresponding Markov chain, the transfer rate matrix is obtained. Then the steady-state probability of each reachable state is calculated. According to these, some performance indexes are got, such as utilization and busy ration. Finally the paper makes evaluation and analysis for the case model.更多还原