【作者】 宋先杰；

【导师】 于世永；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 考古学及博物馆学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 平均预期寿命是反映一国家、地区人类健康状况的重要指标,也是综合反映国家、地区社会生活状况的“晴雨表”。它通过编制生命表来计算,这种方法是现代人口统计的一种重要方法,目前其理论和技术手段都比较完善。在合理的假设条件下,这种分析方法的基本原理可以借用到考古学中。通过对遗址人骨鉴定报告的数据统计,做生命表并计算古人平均预期寿命可以让我们从一个侧面了解古人的社会生活状况。本文利用生命表法对大汶口文化典型墓地进行了尝试性的统计分析并提出影响古人平均预期寿命的各因素及它们的相互关系,共分为四章7个部分。第一部分,绪论,包括本文的选题和研究目的,平均预期寿命的概念,生命表的编制原理和方法,以及国内研究史前古人平均预期寿命的现状和本文的研究方法与思路。第二部分,第一章包括3节内容。第一节统计了大汶口文化所有己发表有人骨鉴定报告并满足符合本文统计规范的的遗址。第二节对符合本文统计要求的9遗址进行生命表编制和平均预期寿命的计算,以王因遗址为例,详细描述了生命表的编制过程。第三节做各墓地死亡年龄直方图和P-P图对平均预期寿命的结果进行初步的比较和死亡年龄分布统计检验。提出平均预期寿命较高的7遗址死亡年龄分布服从正态分布并给出其数学意义；尉迟寺和五村遗址平均预期寿命较低的原因与遗址出土人骨低年龄段占总人骨数很大比重有关,另也可能与遗址发掘状况及其他影响平均预期寿命因素有关,比如战争、饥荒、迁徙等。并指出,鉴于定量统计的结果受材料可靠程度的影响很大,人骨鉴定工作今后需要提高鉴定精度。第三部分,第二章分为三节。本节是利用SPSS软件从遗址的地理位置和社会经济因素进行定量统计分析。第一节对9遗址根据平均预期寿命、经度、纬度、遗址面积、每具人骨平均占有随葬品数量这5个指标进行聚类分析,把9遗址分为3类,剔除掉两个预期寿命偏低的遗址后进行再分类,把7遗址分为2类并对结果进行讨论。初步指出经度、纬度因素对各遗址古人平均预期寿命影响要大于社会经济因素。第二节通过用相关及多元回归分析法尝试揭示9遗址的平均预期寿命、经度、纬度、遗址面积、每具人骨平均占有随葬品数量这5个指标的相互关系,结果显示平均预期寿命与其他4个指标每两个之间相关性不大。多元回归分析的结果显示经度对各遗址平均预期寿命的影响最大,其次是纬度,而遗址面积、每具人骨平均占有随葬品数量这2个用以指示遗址社会经济状况的因素对平均预期寿命的影响次于经度、纬度因素。并结合各遗址所对应的大汶口文化分期,指出大汶口文化早期到中期阶段存在古人平均预期寿命降低的现象。第三节为本章小结,分别从空间、时间角度指出大汶口文化时期古人平均预期寿命存在地区差异和时期变动。第四部分：对生命表法在考古学的应用需注意的问题进行探讨。第一节通过编制分期别生命表计算出的平均预期寿命和遗址总人口生命表计算的结果相比较并讨论误差的影响,指出今后应注意历时性问题,尽可能编制分期别生命表以保证精确度和科学性。第二节从分性别编制生命表的结果初步讨论了男性、女性平均预期寿命在大汶口文化阶段的差异。并根据王因、刘林墓地男女死亡年龄累积曲线指出生活在王因、刘林遗址的古人女性平均初育年龄可能为17岁,并探讨了造成女性平均预期寿命低于男性的原因。指出除了可能与妇女在围产期大量死亡有关,还可能与女性社会地位低于男性有关。第三节通过环境考古近年来的研究认识,对大汶口文化从早期阶段到中期阶段古人平均预期寿命存在降低的现象进行分析,认为与古气候的变化特别是距今6000年左右开始的全球气候变化有一定相关性。并尝试从医疗卫生方面分析古人平均预期寿命的变化。第五部分,第四章分为三节,对生命表法在考古学的其他应用做尝试性探讨。第一节病理分析,通过介绍去死因生命表及其编制方法,认为今后可利用此法统计古人的病因及研究史前遗址是否存在地方性疾病等。第二节人口数量统计分析,回顾了人口增长的概念和人口再生产的模式,介绍了人口统计学人口预测的方法,指出可以在一定条件下用人口预测的公式回溯逆推历史时期乃至史前人口数量；并以西汉人口数量变化过程分析了本文这种方法与思路的可行性,通过介绍模型生命表提供了一种研究史前人口数量的具体方法,并以王因为例介绍其算法,并通过统计检验图检验假设前提。第三节为本章小结,指出生命表在考古学的应用前景和应用局限。第六部分,结语。结语对大汶口文化时代古人平均预期寿命影响因素进行总结并指出今后研究需要从其他角度思考问题。对于生命表在考古学的应用存在的一些细节问题进行讨论,并给出今后的研究思路；提出人口统计学方法和基本概念在考古学应用中要注意考虑应用前提和条件。最后对本文的计算误差及生命表在考古学的应用前景和局限进行总结。第七部分,附表里登录了依据本文统计规范所选取的原始数据。本文的创新点在于：1.结合多学科背景知识,对影响平均预期寿命的主要因素进行定量的定性研究。通过相关分析,讨论了各因素对平均预期寿命变化的影响；并尝试进行回归分析,得出影响平均预期寿命各因素的重要程度,并结合遗址进行规律性的探讨。2.对生命表法在考古学运用中存在的方法移植问题进行检验。通过做遗址分期生命表讨论了计算结果的误差并从分期生命表中再次验证了大汶口文化早期阶段到中期阶段存在着平均预期寿命降低的现象。3.分性别编制生命表并对大汶口文化早期阶段存在的男性平均预期寿命高于女性的现象进行初步探讨。4.本文从一个大的文化时期对多处遗址进行生命表编制并计算平均预期寿命,从结果中也显示出大汶口文化时期似乎存在着多种对应关系。如气候变化与平均预期寿命的变化,社会性质的变化与平均预期寿命的变化似乎有一定的联系。5.对生命表在考古学的具体应用提出自己的见解,认为应结合考古实际,今后有针对性地选取墓葬数量较多的遗址重点突破,建立史前社会区域模型生命表作为标尺,为其他遗址提供参照标准。更多还原

【Abstract】 The average life expectancy is an important indicator of the physical condition of a state or a region. It is a "barometer" of the socioeconomic condition as well. It is calculated by compling life tables. This is an important method of modern demography, and it has been widely used in census. At present the theory and techniques are well developed. Based on reasonable assumptions, this method can be used in the statistical study of prehisotric human population. Through the identification and counting of human skeletons in archaeological sites a life table can be complied, which in turn can be used to calculate the average life expectancy of prehistoric human beings and their living conditions.In this thesis, the life table method was employed to conduct statistical analyses of some typical cemetery during the Dawenkou Cultures, so as to infer the average life expectancy of ancient people and the environmental factors. This thesis is composed of four chapters, covering six parts.PartⅠis Introduction, where I describe the objectives of this study, the concept of average life expectancy, the principles and methods of compling life tables, and an overreview of archaeological demography.PartⅡincludes the first chapter, which is composed of three sections. Section I presents the prehistoric census data of the Dawenkou Cultures based on the hman skeletetons as reported in published arhcaleogical excavation reports and the information of archaeological sites that meet the statistical requirmentsof this study..SectionⅡpresents life tables and the average life expectancy based on a total of 9 sites that meet the statistical requirements of this study. The detailed procedure of compling a life table was examplified using the Wang Yin site.SectionⅢpresnts histograms and the P-P chart of the average life expectancy as well as preliminary statistical test of age and death. The age of death at 7 sites of higher average life expectancy appears to follow a normal (Gaussian) distribution; Yuchi Temple and the five village sites show a lower life expectancy, probably due to the dominance of skeletkions of younge people, or other factors such as war, famine, migration and so on. Thereofore, large enough numbers of human skeletons should be identified and counted to reach statistical significance.PartⅢis ChapterⅡ, which is divided into three sections. In Section I, quantitative statistical analyses of socio-economic factors were conducted using the SPSS software. Cluster analysis was done based on the average life expectancy, longitude, latitude, site area, and the per capita possession of goods in a grave.These nine sites can be divided into three categories. After excluding two outliers, the remaining 7 sites are classified into two categories and the results are discussed. Initial results points out that the longitude, latitude factors affecting on the average life expectancy of ancient sites is greater than the social and economic factors.In Section II, by using correlation and multivariate regression analysis, the relationship among the average life expectancy at 9 sites, longitude, latitude, site area, the per capita possession of goods in each grave was revealed. The results show that the average life expectancy is less relevant to the other 4 factors. Multivariate regression analysis shows that longitude is much more important to the average life expectancy at the sites than latitude and site area. The third most important factors is the per capita possession of good in each grave. This appears to be a good indicator of the socio-economic conditions. Combined with the site in phases corresponding to the Dawenkou Cultures, that culture of the early to mid stages of Dawenkou there reduce the average life expectancy of ancient phenomenon.SectionⅢsummarizes the results about the spatial and temporal changes in the life expectancy of the Dawenkou man.PartⅣis the discussion about the potential application of life table method in archaeology. Spectial attention should be paiud on the errors. SectionⅠdo not through the preparatory stage, the average life table to calculate the total life expectancy and life tables sites compared the results calculated and discussed the impact of the error, pointing out that the important issue of the future study should pay attention on, not as much as possible the preparatory stage of life table to ensure accuracy and scientific soundness.SectionⅡprepared from the sex life table to discuss the preliminary findings of the male and female average life expectancy in different stages of Dawenkou culture. Because according to Wangyin and Liu Lin burial age of death of men and women that live in the cumulative curve of the king, Liu Lin ancient sites of women may be the early age of 17 years education, and to explore the cause of women than men on average life expectancy of the reasons. Except perhaps that a large number of women in the perinatal death, and women may also be related to lower social status than men.SectionⅢof archaeological research in recent years through environmental awareness from an early stage of Dawenkou culture to medium-term existence of the ancient lower average life expectancy of the phenomenon, that of ancient climate change, particularly global climate changes since 6000 yr BP have a certain relevance. And try to analyze from the medical and health changes in average life expectancy of the ancients.PartⅤ, ChapterⅣis divided into three sections, on the life table method in archeology to do a trial of other applications. SectionⅠis pathological analysis, the cause of death through the introduction to the life table and its approach, that the future can use this statistical study ancient and prehistoric sites the cause of the existence of endemic diseases.Statistical analysis of population is given in SectionⅡ, reviewed the concept of population growth and population reproduction pattern, introduced the demographic population projections methods, pointing out that under certain conditions can be predicted with a formula of population to extend the historical period and even the prehistoric population; Han population changes and to process analysis and ideas in this paper the feasibility of this approach, by introducing the model life table provides a number of specific ways of prehistoric people, and to the king because the patients present their algorithm, and through statistical tests Test for assumptions.SectionⅢis the summary of this Chapter. The potential and limitation of life table in archaeological are discussed.PartⅥis Conclusion. Conclusion of the Dawenkou ancient times the average life expectancy factors were summarized and pointed out that future research needs to think from other perspectives. For the application of life table exists in the archaeological issues to discuss in some detail, and gives ideas for future research: presented the basic concepts of demographic methods and applications in archeology should pay attention to consider the application of the premise and conditions. Finally, the calculation of this error and the application of life table in the archaeological prospects and limitations are summarized.PartⅦof Schedule logged in statistical norms based on this raw data selected.Highlights of this thesis are:1. With a multi-disciplinary background, the average life expectancy affects the main qualitative research quantitative factors. Through correlation analysis, discussion of various factors on the impact of changes in average life expectancy; and try to regression analysis, the average life expectancy of the importance of each factor, combined with the regularity of the site.2. On the use of life table method in archaeological methods exist to test its application. Stage by making the site the results discussed in the life table and the error of life table from the stage once again proved to the early stages of Dawenkou culture medium term there is the phenomenon of reduced life expectancy.3. Life table was compiled based on different genders, and the preparation of the early stages of culture there Dawenkou average life expectancy of men than women discussed the phenomenon4. This time from a large culture of multiple sites for the preparation of life tables and calculates the average life expectancy, the results also show that from the Dawenkou culture period there appears to be a variety of correspondence. Such as climate change and changes in life expectancy, the changing nature of society and changes in life expectancy seems to have some connection.5. On the life table specific applications in archeology make their own opinion, that should be combined with archaeological practice, the next targeted a large number of burial sites selected major breakthroughs, the establishment of regional models of prehistoric social life table as a benchmark for other sites provide a reference standard更多还原