【作者】 李丽；

【导师】 任永泰；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 水资源的可持续利用是社会、经济可持续发展的基础以及保障条件之一,已成为人类的必然选择。为保证水资源与社会、经济的协调发展,必须加强对区域水资源的管理,用科学的预警方法,对区域水资源可持续利用进行预警分析。1)根据研究目的确定了研究区域,并就该区域的地理位置、地形地貌特征、气候气象、水资源开发利用概况、社会经济状况等进行了详尽的分析,为下一步的工作奠定了坚实的基础。2)系统构建区域水资源可持续利用预警系统的初步理论框架。通过对区域水资源可持续利用预警系统的理论基础、预警机理以及相关概念的全面分析和深度研究,确定了符合水资源可持续性特点和预警系统特色的区域水资源可持续利用预警理论体系。3)依据预警系统指标体系的构建原则,初步构建了水资源可持续利用包括警源和警兆指标的预警指标体系,利用时差相关分析法对警兆指标进行先行、同步、滞后性质的分类,完成了预警指标体系的初步筛选。在分析水资源复合系统的内涵的基础上,将筛选后的预警指标划分成区域社会—经济—水资源的复合系统,其中社会、经济和水资源是水资源复合系统的三个子系统。4)提出并确定了水资源可持续利用预警指标的警度,即无警、轻警、中警、重警,引入反馈法,并结合已有研究成果,确定了预警指标的警限,对其预警有效性进行检验,从而设计了预警信号灯系统,并对哈尔滨市水资源可持续利用进行监测预警;运用支持向量回归机的方法对预警指标值进行了预测,在预测的基础上,对哈尔滨市水资源可持续利用进行趋势预警,包括单指标趋势预警和多指标趋势预警,获得了趋势预警的结果;在模型预警中,提出层次分析法和组合赋权确定权重,在指标值预测基础上,利用基于效用函数综合评价模型对区域水资源可持续利用程度进行预警,得出各区域水资源可持续利用的短期预警结果。5)研究表明,2010-2013年哈尔滨市各区域水资源可持续利用状况均处于中警。最后对水资源可持续利用的预警结果进行分析,结合国内外研究现状提出了相应的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sustainable use of water resources is one of the basic as well as security conditions for the social and economic development, as become an inevitable choice for mankind. To ensure the coordinated development of water resources, the social and economic, management of regional water resources, scientific methods and study on forecasting and warning of the sustainable utilization become more and more essential.1) According to the research objectives,the author has determined the research area. A detailed analysis on the region’s geographic location, terrain features, climate, meteorology, water resources development and utilization of profiles, socio-economic status, which laid a solid foundation for the next step.2) Initial theoretical framework on the forecasting and warning of the sustainable utilization of regional water resources in the regional construction. Through the forecasting and warning systems of the sustainable utilization of regional water resources theory, mechanism and a comprehensive analysis & deep studies on related concepts, determine the sustainability of water resources in line with the characteristics and features of forecasting and warning systems of the sustainable utilization of regional water resources.3) Based on the forecasting and warning systems construction principle, built the sustainable use of water resources warning indicator system initially, including warning source indicators and warning signs. With the usilization of time difference correlation analysis, classify warning signs in advance, synchronization and lag natures, completed preliminary screening of early-warning indicator system. In the analysis of complex system of water resources on the basis of the content, filtere into complex systems social - economic - water resourse in which social, economic and water resources are three subsystems.4) Proposed and identified the warning level of forecasting and warning of the sustainable utilization water resourse, that is, without warning, light-level warning, middle-level warning, significate warning, introducting feedback and combining with existing research results, identify the warning limit, test the effectiveness of warning,design an early warning signal system, monitoring the sustainable use of water resources in Harbin. predict warning indicator values with the use of support vector machine approach, including single and multiple trends warning indicators and get the results. In the model pre-warning, the introduction of comprehensive evaluation model based on utility function, propose empower AHP to determine the weight and composition. In predicted index value based on the utility function-based evaluation model for regional sustainable utilization of water resources in early warning, come to the regional water resources sustainable utilization of short-term pre-warning results.5) The results show that in 2010-2013 the study area in Harbin sustainable use of water resources is in the middle-level warning situation. Finally, analyze the pre-warning results of sustainable use of water resources, status quo of the corresponding countermeasures at home and abroad.更多还原