【作者】 王晨懿；

【导师】 税伟；

【作者基本信息】 四川农业大学 ， 自然地理学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 乡村规划是控制农村居民点用地规模和布局的重要手段,特别是在地质灾害多发的山地环境下,农村居民点的合理规划不仅关系到农村土地利用结构的优化调整,在减灾避灾,确保群众生命财产安全方面也至关重要。本文选取在5.12地震中受损严重的都江堰向峨乡为研究区域,在提取和分析各种研究数据的基础上：利用Logistic模型对研究区域进行地质灾害危险性划分；建立了向峨乡农村居民点用地适宜性评价体系；分析研究区域农村居民点的空间布局与动态演替过程,利用元胞自动机,采用多准则模拟的方式,模拟农村居民点的演化；最后,通过分析讨论灾后规划的实施效果、技术路线,提出受地质灾害威胁下的山地农村居民点规划技术路线。主要结果分述如下：1)利用3S技术手段挖掘研究区域的地质、生态、社会经济等背景信息。在对向峨乡TM遥感影像进行数据预处理的基础上,利用RS、GIS技术平台提取了向峨乡地层岩性、线性构造、植被盖度等信息；根据DEM数字高程模型,提取研究区域地形地貌、水系信息；通过GPS技术,实地获取了向峨乡的卫生、文教等基础设施的空间位置信息。2)研究区域地质灾害危险性区划研究。在对向峨乡地质灾害影响因素进行研究的基础上,分析并讨论了该区域内的各种地质灾害与致灾因素之间的相关性,利用Logistic数学模型对都江堰向峨乡进行地质灾害威胁评价,并在此基础上将向峨乡划分为：地质灾害高易发生区、中易发生区、低易发生区和基本稳定区。研究结果显示：向峨乡91.09%的地质灾害点位于本研究划定的高易发生区以及中易发生区,证实,本研究建立的地质灾害危险性区划方案可行。3)农村居民点用地的适宜性评价。基于特尔菲法(Delphi)综合考虑并选取向峨乡农村居民点选址的影响因素,基于层次分析法(AHP)赋予各影响因素权重,建立了研究区域农村居民点用地的适宜性评价体系,并利用Arcgis的空间叠置分析,实现向峨乡农村居民点用地的适宜性区划。4)灾前向峨乡农村居民点空间布局及演化特征。采用农村居民点用地比重(PR)、扩展(收缩)指数(SI)分析法,对向峨乡地震前农村居民点的空间布局特征以及在规划影响下,1996年-2006年期间,农村居民点的空间演化情况进行了研究。研究发现：地震前,向峨乡农村居民点主要集中分布于相对海拔较低,离水系、公路较近的区域内。由于忽视了对地质灾害的预防,大部分扩展农村居民点安全性不高,导致向峨乡45%的农村居民点密集区位于研究区域内线性构造交错复杂,容易受地震破坏的位置,60%的密集区分布于地质灾害中易发或高易发区域。5)基于CA-Markov农村居民点演化模拟。利用前期研究的地质灾害区划结果、农村居民点适宜性评价结果作为CA-Markov模型转化规则,在对农村居民点用地空间演化研究基础上(1996年-2006年期间),分场景模拟农村居民点2011年的状况,并在地质灾害威胁、用地适宜性等方面对模拟结果、2006年农村居民点状况及研究区域灾后规划重建农村居民点三者进行对比分析。研究发现：93%灾后规划重建的农村居民点位于地震灾害低易发区或基本稳定区,88%位于适宜或较适宜选址区域。证实：本研究建立的利用地质灾害区划以及适宜性评价结果指导农村居民点选址的可行性。此外,模拟结果与灾后规划实施结果差别较大,可见虽然向峨乡农村居民点在原空间布局上进行了演变,但是不能从根本上改变不合理的空间布局。但是,通过比较以地质灾害区划及农村居民点适宜性评价作为CA-Markov模型转换规则的模拟结果、较基期数据、及其他模拟结果发现,农村居民点的空间布局在安全性、适宜性方面有所改善,因此可以将该种方法作为山地农村居民点规划的辅助手段。6)进行了灾前规划与灾后规划实施效果、技术路线的比较研究,在分析比较两种规划实施效果差异的基础上,比较两者在技术方法上的差异和优劣,结合本次研究提出一套技术体系,依次包括：基于3S技术规划背景数据的采集→规划专题数据库的建立→地质灾害危险性区划→地灾主导的规划区域农村居民点用地适宜性评价→规划预案→规划预案模拟评价→规划方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rural planning is an important way to control scale and distribution of rural residential area, especially at mountainous area with high potential of hazards. Efficient Planning can, on one hand optimize suburban land use, and on the other reduce the threats of geological hazard and in turn substantially protecting life and property of villager. Xiang’e village suffered from serious damage in the 5.12 earthquake with its 95% of constructions destroyed. On the basis of extraction and analysis of data of the study area, according to geological hazard, the study area was regionalized by Using the Logistic model; An evaluation system was built for the rural residential area land-use of xiang’e; Using Multi-Criteria rules of Cellular Automaton simulate evolution of the residential area land-use under the original Planning; Finally, a new rural residential area land-use Planning route was propounded. The main results were as follows.1. Using 3S technique to get geological, ecological, social background information. On the basis of TM data preprocessing, the information about formation lithology, Geological Structure, Coverage of Vegetation of xiang’e village was extracted by RS, GIS technique; According to DEM, the topography, hydrological data was collected by GIS technique; With the help of GPS, the geographic position information of medical, education infrastructure and geologic hazards point was collected in the field.2. The spatial characteristic of geological hazards and the potential causes was analyzed. The datasets of correlations among geological hazard and causal factors is grid based, with the help of Logistic Model, the potential of hazard based upon different combination of causal factors were discussed, the potential threats were categorized, according to the analysis, into None-, Low-, Medium-High-and High-Potential zones.3. An evaluation system was built based upon, among others including socio-economical criteria, potential ecological hazard zones for Rural Settlements site selection. According to the result of suitability evaluation, the study area was categorized into Highly-Suitable, Suitable, Sub-Suitable, and Not-Suitable.4. The distribution and evolution of xiang’e under original land-use Planning The spatial changes of landscape pattern of the rural residential area during 1996 and 2006 were analyzed by GIS, PR and SI technology. The research suggested that the residential area were mainly located at lower altitudes, river and road near area. Because the original planning provided the insufficient geological hazard protection, 45% rural residential area was located in region which was threatened by earthquake and 60% was located in geological disasters zones.5. The spatial simulation of rural residential area by CA-Markov model. The model, was conducted based upon the data from year 1996 to 2006, by comparing the hazard and suitability data between 2006 and 2011, under the strategy of aggregation settlements, the rural settlements decreased by 844239.18 square meters. According to the results of the hazard and suitability evaluation, the planning effectively reduced the potential hazard threats while enhanced residential suitability.6. The original and the after-earthquake plannings were compared at the effect, technical route, hazard threat and residential suitability et al. From this study results, a new route for rural residential area planning was conclued:Background data collection by 3S technique→Characteristic database establishment→Geological disaster zone division→Suitability evaluation system for rural planning against geological hazards→Preliminary planning→Simulation the evolution of land-use under the preliminary planning→Final planning.更多还原