【作者】 刘明明；

【导师】 李冬梅；

【作者基本信息】 四川农业大学 ， 技术经济与管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪50年代之前,我国曾是世界上最大的大豆生产国,国际市场上90%的大豆都是由中国供应。而从1996年开始,我国由大豆出口国变为大豆净进口国,国内大豆缺口量很大,供需矛盾十分突出。造成这种局面的根本原因是我国大豆的单产水平太低,比较效益差,严重影响了农民种植大豆的积极性,大豆种植面积连年下滑。从国内来看,东北和华北地区是我国的大豆主产区,约占全国大豆种植面积的2/3,但目前北方地区大豆的种植面积已趋于饱和,因此大豆产业发展应向南方要面积。南方各省人多地少,粮食生产压力大,但南方各省拥有适宜大豆生产的土壤及气候条件。四川农业大学等单位的专家将传统的“麦-玉-苕”间套种植方式改为“麦-玉-豆”新型大豆套种种植方式,既解决了劳动力紧张,又有效地扩大了种植面积,对稳定我国大豆生产,保障粮食安全有着重要的意义。为了进一步了解“麦-玉-豆”种植模式的技术效率及其推广的影响因素,本文以农业可持续发展理论、农业技术创新理论、技术扩散与转移理论及立体农业相关理论为指导,在文献回顾的基础上,采用定性与定量研究相结合,以四川省237户“麦-玉-豆”模式种植户和114户“麦-玉-苕”种植户的问卷调查数据为样本,首先,文章运用描述性统计对比分析了两种种植模式的投入产出效益；其次利用柯布道格拉斯生产函数测算了四川省大豆生产的生产效率；再次,采用非参数估计模型对“麦-玉-豆”和“麦-玉-苕”种植模式的DEA有效性进行评价；最后,对“麦-玉-豆”种植模式技术推广的影响因素进行了实证研究。通过几个方面的分析,本文得出以下结论：(1)四川大豆产业发展缓慢,单产远远低于全国平均水平,四川省对大豆产业的发展重视不足等原因严重影响农户种植大豆的生产积极性,四川大豆种植面积有逐年下滑的趋势；(2)四川大豆生产效率较低,只有0.74,技术效率的低下直接制约着大豆产量的增长；(3)传统种植模式“麦-玉-苕”存在着资源利用不尽合理、生产要素投入不当等问题,相比之下,“麦-玉-豆”种植模式DEA有效；(4)不同影响因素对“麦-玉-豆”种植模式技术效率的作用大小不同,对农户选择“麦-玉-豆”种植模式有显著影响的因素主要有家庭劳动力数量、文化程度、其他物质费用投入、政策支持和技术服务,其他几个变量的影响均表现为不显著。综上,本文从政府、企业、科研机构和农户四个角度提出相关建议：加大政府政策的扶持和补贴力度,尽快制定大豆最低收购价政策,解决农民在生产销售过程中的各种问题；强化大豆加工企业的带动作用,以农业龙头企业为主体大力发展订单农业,带动当地大豆产业的发展；加强与科研机构的交流合作,支持大豆方面的专家开展良种技术攻关研究,组织专家开展技术培训,深入田间进行技术巡回指导等；提高农民的参与度,充分依靠农业院校、农技站等机构进行培训,利用广播、杂志、电视等媒介开展农村实用技术培训,提高农民的技术接受能力,使新技术在广大农民当中更快更广地扩散开来。更多还原

【Abstract】 China was the largest soybean-producing country in the world before 1950s,90% of the soybeans were supplied by China in the international market. Since 1996, China began to be a soybean-imported country from a soybean-exported country, there is a serious shortage in domestic, the contradiction of demand and supply is very prominent. That’s because the acreage of soybean is low and inefficient, which seriously affect the enthusiasm of farmers to plant soybeans. From the perspective of domestic, the northeast and north China are the main soybean-producing areas, accounting 2/3. But the planting acreage of soybeans has become saturated, the development of soybean industry should tend to south areas, where the population is big, the land is little, and the food production pressure is huge, but it has suitable soil and climate conditions to plant soybeans. In 2006, the experts fron Sichuan Agricultural University innovated the planting model of "wheat-maize-soyean", in placed of the traditional model "wheat-maize-sweet potato", it not only reduced the labor-intense, expanded the planting acreage, but also increased soybean production and farmers’income, which are meaningful to stable and develop domestic soybean production, meet the demand for soybeans and maintain a regular market.To further study the technical efficieny and its influencing factors, the paper is based on the agricultural sustainable development theory, agricultural technology innovation theory, technology diffusion and transformation theory and three-dimensional theory, and qualitative and quantitative research studies were adopted, the paper analyzed the technical and economic efficiency and influencing factors of diffusing the "wheat-maize-soybean" model, combined with 237 "wheat-maize-soybean" cropping pattern and 114 "wheat-maize-sweet potato" cropping pattern farmers. Firstly, input and output of the two models are comparatively analyzed using descriptive statistics; Secondly, the technical efficiency of soybean is calculated with the Cobb-Douglas production function; Thirdly, DEA efficiency of the two models are evaluated using non-parametric estimation model; Finally, from the perspective of farmers, the technology promotion factors model of "wheat-maize-soybean" cropping pattern is established, the technical efficiency of soybean is explanatory variables, Tobit regression model is used to reveal the roles of influencing factors. Conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1)The soybean industry in Sichuan develops slowly, the level of yields is much lower than the national average level. The reason that local government is indifference with soybean industry seriously affected the farmers’ enthusiasm, the planting areas of soybean in Sichuan tend to decline year by year. (2)Soybean production efficiency in Sichuan is low, it’s only 0.74. The low technical efficiency directly restricts the growth of soybean production. (3)There are some problems in "wheat-maize-sweet potato" cropping pattern, such as waste of resources, unreasonable input and so on. "wheat-maize-soybean" cropping pattern is DEA efficient. (4)Different factors have different roles on the "wheat-maize-soybean" cropping patterns. The significant influencing factors are material input costs, policy support and technical services, the impact of other variables are not significant.In summary, on the basis of comprehensive analysis above, some relevant policy recommendations are drawn from the angles of government, enterprises, research institutions and farmers. Firstly, the support and subsidies should be strengthened the least purchase price should be made to solve the production and marketing problems. Secondly, the role of enterprises should be hignlighted. Develop the contract agriculture to promote the development of soybean industry. Thirdly, strengthen exchanges and cooperation with research institutions, support experts with soybean seed technology research, organize experts to conduct technical training and guide in the field. Finally, encourage farmers to participate in the technology extension, training radio, magazines, television and other medias relied on agricultural colleges and agricultural institutions, so ao to spread the new technology in rural areas quickly and more widely among farmers.更多还原