【作者】 张华侨；

【导师】 窦明；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 水是基础性的自然资源和战略性的经济资源,也是维系生态系统健康稳定的重要保证。随着我国城市化进程的加快,城市及其周边地区的人口和产业密度激增,人类活动对水资源和生态环境的影响日益加剧。由于水资源过度开发利用而导致的水安全危机,则成为当前人类生产生活及发展所面临的最严重挑战之一。开展区域水安全理论研究,对促进区域经济社会可持续发展以及构建人水和谐社会起到至关重要的作用。本文在广泛查阅国内外相关研究成果的基础上,紧密围绕“水安全”主题,提出一套城市水安全研究理论体系,主要包括：从水安全的概念和内涵出发,系统分析了人类活动中的供、用、耗、排等水事行为及其与社会、经济、环境之间的互动影响关系；基于系统动力学的基本理论和方法,构建描述人水系统作用机理的社会水循环系统动力学仿真模型,定量刻划水安全要素在系统内部的运转关系；从社会安全、经济安全、环境安全和工程安全四个方面构建了水安全评价指标体系,进而提出基于模糊综合评价方法的区域水安全评价模型,定量评估区域的水安全状况；开展水安全调控研究,设计了不同的区域发展模式,并建立了基于发展模式驱动下的水安全调控模型,通过对区域经济结构和用水方式的调控,来寻求能满足未来水安全需求的合理发展模式。以郑州市为例,开展了当前和未来一定时期内郑州市水安全评估和调控研究。根据研究区的特点和实际情况,构建了适合郑州市的水安全评价指标体系,设计了7种水安全决策调控方案,进行系统动力学仿真模型(SD)模拟运行和水安全综合评价分析,得出各方案在规划水平年2015年、2020年和2030年的水安全与经济社会、环境耦合系统的发展趋势,以及不同时期的水安全度,并在评价结果分析的基础上,得出了保障该地区水安全的产业发展模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water is fundamental natural resources and strategic economic resources, and sustain the ecosystem health stability of the important guarantee. With the acceleration of urbanization in China, that not only prompted the city and its surrounding areas of the population and industrial density surge, but olso human activities on the influence of water resources and ecological environment aggravating. Due to the excessive development and utilization of water resources in water security crisis, will become one of the current human subsistence production and development facing the most serious challenge. Develop regional water security theory research, to promote regional sustainable economic and social development and the construction of harmonious society water play a crucial role.Based on the results of domestic and foreign relevant research, focusing on the water safety theme and puts forward a set of urban water safety research theory system. The main contributions include:The analysis of the system for human activities such as with consumption behavior and water line with the social economy environment the interaction between the relationship, from the concept and connotation of the water safety; Based on system dynamics theory, describe people water system of internal mechanism of social water cycle system dynamics simulation model and quantitative skinned water security elements in internal system working relationship; Construct water safety evaluation index system from four aspects including social security economic security environment safety and engineering safety. Put forward based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of the evaluation of regional water security model and evaluation area of water safety conditions. Carry out water safety control research, design a different regional development mode, and established based on development mode of water safety regulation driven to model, through regional economic structure and the regulation of water, to seek ways to meet future water safety needs of the reasonable development mode. Taking Zhengzhou as an example, take above theory method applied to the current and future of zhengzhou city water safety assessment and regulation for the proposed theory, provide empirical research method according to the characteristics of the study area with actual situation of zhengzhou city, constructs the suitable water safety evaluation index system, designed the seven water safety decision control scheme for water, security fight.更多还原