【作者】 周燕萍；

【导师】 吕昭河；

【作者基本信息】 云南大学 ， 人口学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放、经济发展激发了我国的人口流动,同时,大规模的人口流动为经济社会发展提供了丰富的劳动力,促进了我国经济的发展,产生了一系列社会经济效应。2009年,我国流动人口数量已达到2.11亿人,而且人口流动将越来越频繁,人口流动问题备受关注,因而研究人口流动具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。本文试图研究省际人口流动,探索省际人口流动的社会经济效应并进行实证分析。本文共分6个部分。第一部分为导言,介绍了本文的选题背景、研究内容、研究方法和研究框架等。第二部分简要梳理了人口流动的定义、一般理论和文献研究。第三部分回顾了我国人口流动的历史,阐述了我国人口流动的现状。第四部分从理论上对我国人口流动的效应进行了全面论述,分析了省际人口流动对人口流入地、流出地、流动者自身的积极和消极影响,并深入研究了人口流动的人口学效应。第五部分为实证研究,利用2000年全国人口普查和2005年1%人口抽样调查等数据,通过进行相关分析,建立一元回归模型、多元回归模型,本文研究得出,人口流动与GDP、人均GDP、城镇人均收入、农村人均收入、市场化程度、人口城市化水平、人口密度存在着显著的相关关系。人口流动虽然与老龄化、抚养比、性别比不存在显著的线性相关关系,但仍影响着它们的变化。主要回归结果表明,省际流动人口每增加1000人,该地区的GDP可增长1亿元；人口净流动率每增加一个百分点,人均GDP将增加766.943元等等。第六部分是针对我国人口流动的思考。我国人口流动将是一个长期的、人类历史上最大规模的人口流动,我们应该重视人口流动的社会经济效应,引导人口有序流动、合理分布。从研究内容和方法看,不同变量的选择将影响人口流动产生不同的社会经济效应,因而变量的选择是关键的问题,本文更多地引入一些经济学、人口学的新变量,进行了创新性的研究,使本文具有更深刻的研究意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the vigorous development of our country’s reform and opening policy and marketing economy, the population migration in China has been becoming an important social and economic phenomenon. Being rich labor forces, the large-scaled migrants have made a lot of effects on economy and social development.The number of migrant population has dramatically climbed to 211 million in the year of 2009, and it will continue to increase massively and steadily in the future. Therefore, studying on migration has an important theoretical and realistic significance. So this paper strives to research inter-provincial migration, and it also makes an active exploration towards inter-provincial migration’s social and economy effects and the use of empirical analysis.There are 6 parts in the paper. Part 1 introduces the background, main content, research methods and frame structure of this paper. Part 2 makes clear the concept of migrant population, also it is an analysis of theory and issues related to migration. Part 3 is about the history and current situation of population migration and distribution. Part 4 concentrates mainly on the economy and social effects, then analysis the population migration’s negative and positive influence upon place of arrival, place of origin and migrants themselves, with in-depth study on demographic effects of migration.In Part 5 "empirical analysis" we use the 2000 Population Census, the 1% Population Sampling Survey in 2005 and other dates to analysis. Upon the analysis of correlation and Regression model, migration population exhibits a close relationship to GDP, GDP per capita, urban income per capita, rural income per capita, marketization level, urbanization level, population density. Though migration population don’t exhibits a significant relationship to ageing, dependency ratio and sex ratio, migration is still contributes to the change of ageing, dependency ratio and sex ratio. Through the empirical analysis, this paper shows that inter-provincial migration population increases 1,000 persons, GDP of this place can increase 1 billion yuan; net migration rate increases 1 percent, GDP per capita will increase 766.943 yuan, etc. Part6, on the basis of above, we should realize that china is experiencing the longest and largest scale of population migration in human history. And we should also pay attention to migration’s social and economy effects, guiding orderly migration and rational distribution of population.In the main content and research methods of this paper, it’s important to choose indicators of economy and social effects. This paper propose new variables of demography and economics, conducting creative research, thus it promotes the research meaning of this paper to a higher level.更多还原