基于低碳经济背景下云南省土地利用结构与碳排放量关系研究

【作者】 张子迁；

【导师】 杨子生；

【作者基本信息】 云南财经大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济社会的不断发展,高碳排放所产生的“温室效应”对人类社会的负面影响越来越大,节能减排已经成为全球学者们研究的热点。土地是人类一切社会经济活动的载体,差异化的土地利用结构可以有效的引导整个宏观产业结构,处于同种技术水平下的不同产业,其碳排放量有很大的差别。本文基于云南省国土资源厅1997年至2008年土地利用变更数据和《云南统计》年鉴1997年至2008年各类能源消耗数据,以土地资源稀缺理论、土地资源可持续利用理论、系统理论、精明增长理论、产业结构理论和低碳经济相关理论为基础,运用实证分析与规范分析、比较分析和统计分析、定性和定量分析相结合的方法,利用土地利用结构信息熵值对云南省1997年至2008年土地利用结构变化进行系统的描述。分析这一时段土地利用结构信息熵值变化的原因,以及其和全省历年碳排放量变化的关系,并从土地利用结构方面对基于低碳标准限制下云南省2020年建设用地的数量予以预测,以期为低碳经济背景下云南省土地利用结构规划提供一定的理论支撑和科学参考。具体研究过程及相关结论如下:(1)从云南省1997年至2008年土地利用结构信息熵值的变化和云南省1997年至2008年碳排放总量的相关性分析中发现二者之间具有很强的相关性。运用单位根检验法对二者进行平稳性检验证明了两者为平稳序列,再运用var模型确定最优滞后阶数为2之后的johansen协整性检验表明二者之间存在长期稳定的关系,再运用granger因果检验,确定了土地利用结构变化是碳排放量变化的原因。在对各类用地1997年至2008年面积变化与碳排放量变化的进行回归分析后发现,耕地、园地、林地和牧草地面积的变化对碳排放量变化的影响不大,而城乡建设用地和交通水利及其它建设用地面积的变化对碳排放量的变化有很大的影响。(2)分别计算出云南省1997年至2008年各类主要用地的碳排放量,再与全省1997年至2008年碳排放总量做比较分析。结果表明,建设用地是主要的碳源,其历年的碳排放量都占到全省总碳排的93%以上,而且建设用地的碳排放量无论在数量上还是在占全省总碳排放量的比重上都处于一直上升趋势,在2008年,其总量达到全省碳排总量的96.45%。林地是主要的碳汇,其历年的碳汇量都占到全省总碳汇的99%以上;单位面积林地的碳汇量分别是耕地和园地的碳排的242倍和214倍,是建设用地碳排的0.76倍。最后本文在基于我国低碳目标的碳排放量标准限制下,预测出云南省2020年建设用地规模为98.96万hm~2。(3)针对本文的分析,提出在土地利用结构方面实行差别供地、提高土地集约利用效率和合理保护以林地等作为实现低碳经济战略的土地利用结构对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with human economic and social development,Excessive carbon was emissioning to the air by our houman. The negative impact of the "greenhouse " is growing everyday.More and more scientists are focusing on how to save energy and reduce ,the emission of carbon to the air.The land is the vetor of all social and economic activities for human. the diverse of the land use structure can effectively made the macro-structure, and the emissions different . The Yunnan Province is in the upward phase of industrialization,and our province is one of the most important region in our china to reduce the carbon emissions.How to reduce reduce the carbon emissions is one of the major issue facing the development of our province.This article is based on the data of the land use change from 1997to 2008 of the yunnan province and the data of energe consumption data of yunnan province from 1997 to 2008.and use the theory of the sustainable use of land resources、the system theory、the smart growth theory,、The industrial structure theory and the theory of low-carbon economy,with the empirical analysis and normative analysis, the comparative analysis and the statistical analysis, the qualitative and quantitative analysis methods. This article use the information entropy value of the land use structure to describe land use change in Yunnan from 1997 to 2008. analyze the time structure of the information entropy of land use change because its carbon emissions and the province over the years the relationship between change and structural aspects of land use restrictions based on low-carbon standards in Yunnan Province in 2020 to forecast the number of construction sites in order to decrease the background for the low-carbon economy in Yunnan Province to provide a land use planning and scientific information supporting the theory. The follows are the conclusions:(1) with the analysis of the land use structure change of entropy of the Yunnan Province from 1997 to 2008 and the carbon emissions from 1997 to 2008 ,I found their was a strong correlation between them. And then I use the Unit root test method found that they are smooth. test both proved very stable between the two, in the use of var model to determine the optimal lag order of 2 after johansen cointegration test shows that their was a long-term stable relationship between them, I the use the granger causality test find that the structure of land use change is the reson of emission changes. Across the analysis of every changes type of land use changes and the carbon emissions over the years w showed that between them there are also a strong correlation.(2) calculated cultivated land, garden land and the construction of carbon emissions from 1997 to 2008 of the Yunnan Province and then use the data of carbon emissions from 1997 to 2008 to do a comparative analysis with them .The results showes that the forest is the major carbon sink unit area. The forest carbon sink volume is as most as 138 times of the carbon emission for the cultivated land and the garden land, or the 0.86 times same emissions land of construction. Cultivated land and orchard in the province’s total carbon emissions account for a smaller proportion of carbon emissions, and reduce the area of its carbon emissions has decreased year by year. Construction land in terms of carbon emissions in the overall quantity and the proportion of total carbon emissions are in has been on the rise in 2008, its total carbon emissions accounted for the province’s total 94.61 %. Based on this analysis, this paper, based on our 2020 carbon emissions target under the restrictions, predicted that the supply of land for construction Yunnan Province in 2020 is 1121400hm~2.(3) For the analyzes of the correlations of structure land use change and the carbon emissions .I find somde recomdations to reduce the the carbon emissions in the structure of land use .proposed for the differential for the land supplies ,Urge efficiency and rationality way to intensive the use of land .protected the forest as a major carbon sink for the realization of low-carbon economic strategy,.更多还原