全球经济不平衡下中国国际收支现状分析

【作者】 蔡素贞；

【导师】 王学鸿；

【作者基本信息】 云南财经大学 ， 国际金融， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 国际货币基金组织于2005年提出全球经济失衡的概念,近几年来,全球经济失衡已引起国内外学者广泛的关注。其具体表现为一国拥有庞大的贸易赤字,而与之对应的贸易伙伴国却贸易盈余。放眼世界,中美贸易失衡显然已成为全球经济失衡的首要问题。改革开放,特别是中国加入WTO以后,中国经济与世界经济紧密相关。全球经济失衡使中国经济也面临困境。中国国际收支的不平衡表现为“双顺差”的持续扩大,导致中国外汇储备规模不断扩大,同时也给中国经济的稳定和持续发展带来许多消极影响,如:增加中国与其他贸易国的贸易摩擦,贸易顺差与外资流入共同增大了中国外汇储备。外汇储备增加虽然可以抵御中国外部经济风险,但也增大储备货币贬值和资源浪费的压力,进而影响到国内货币政策的实施。如何改善全球经济失衡背景下中国国际收支不平衡,已成为中国学者迫切解决的一道难题。本文着重分析在全球经济失衡产生的背景、原因以及在此环境下中国国际收支失衡的现状,利用传统国际收支调节理论建立模型分析中国国际收支失衡原因,并以此为基础,提出中国政府应采取如何有效措施调整中国国际收支失衡的相关政策。本文提出相应的政策措施是通过改善中国国际收支结构的不合理方面,从而调整中国国际收支失衡的局面,具体措施有:第一,适度调整我国出口产品结构;第二,保持人民币与美元汇率的稳定性;第三,改善我国外汇储备结构;第四,建立内需拉动的经济增长方式。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2005, the international monetary fund (IMF) proposed the concept of“global imbalances”. In recent years, the global imbalances had aroused wide attention of both the domestic and international scholars. Global imbalance is that one country has a huge trade deficit while trade surplus corresponding to such trade deficit is founded in other countries. At the present, the Sino-US trade imbalances mainly contributed to the global imbalances. After China’s reform and opening-up, especially entry into the WTO, China’s economy is deeply linked with the world economy. There is also a difficult situation for Chinese economy under the global imbalances. The imbalance in international payments of China represents as the continuous expansion of "double surpluses", which result in the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserve and negative effect for Chinese economic stability and sustainable development, including the rise in trade frictions with the trade partner countries and China’s foreign exchange reserves. Although foreign exchange reserves can play a vital role in the Chinese economy’s ability to withstand external risks, it also increases the devaluation of reserve currency and waste of resources, and then influence the implement of the China’s monetary policy. The problem of the improvement of China’s international trade imbalances under the background of global imbalances has become a problem to the solved urgently for Chinese scholars.The thesis analyzed the root of the global imbalances and status of the imbalance in international payments of China, using some built models form the mechanism of international payments imbalances. Based on these, the policy suggestions to adjust China’s vast surplus of balance of payments were proposed as follow: first, adjust the export structure; second, hold steady of the exchange rate of RMB & USD; third, improve the structure of foreign reserves; fourth, build the domestic demand-led growth of economy.更多还原