【作者】 许柳鹏；

【导师】 黄书猛；

【作者基本信息】 集美大学 ， 财政学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 地方财政风险是指地方财政的正常支出发生困难而导致政府机器难以正常运转、地方经济停滞不前甚至下降、社会稳定受到破坏的可能性。地方财政风险有很大危害性,由于地方政府负责给当地居民提供最直接的公共产品和公共服务,直接面向广大居民,所以,地方财政风险的爆发会给区域内居民带来重大的福利损失。地方财政风险表现为财政收入风险、财政支出风险、财政赤字风险和财政债务风险。在我国当前国情下,地方政府的财政风险主要表现为土地财政风险、融资平台风险和地方政府的财政支出风险。其中,土地财政风险包括“土地财政”的不可持续性和土地财政产生的财政风险;融资平台风险包括融资平台的由来、积极作用以及如何转化为地方财政风险;地方政府的财政支出风险包括财政支出的预算风险、决策风险和结构风险。由于地方政府由于财力和事权的不对等,导致地方财政收支缺口加大,同时出让土地出让金能获得丰厚的利润,使得地方政府通过卖地获得大量财政收入,个别地区“土地财政”已经成为第二财政。地方政府通过卖地获得收入的同时,通过土地抵押、财政补贴等方式成立地方融资平台,以此获得大量政策性银行、商业银行贷款,来进行地方基础设施建设、城市改扩建工程等,增大了还贷风险。在我国一直存在财政支出低效、结构不合理等情况,这种情况加大了地方政府的财政风险,需要扭转这种支出不合理现象。考虑到焦作市财政数据较为透明和完善,因此本文以焦作市作为案例,实证分析了地方政府面临的财政收入风险、财政支出风险、财政赤字风险和财政债务风险。造成地方财政风险的原因包括财力和事权的不对等、财政支出刚性、以GDP为导向的政绩考核机制和财政行为的软约束,针对这一原因,需要从化解地方融资平台风险、完善财政体制内的分税制、加强地方政府财政行为约束三方面入手解决地方财政风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Local fiscal risks are the possibility that the local fiscal difficulties occur, the local government operates hard, the local economy declines, and the damage to the social stability. Local fiscal risks are very harmful, because the local government is responsible for providing directly to local residents of public goods and public service, and directly faces the residents. Local fiscal crisis will make significant welfare losses for the local residents.Local fiscal risks refer to the risk of local fiscal income, the risk of local fiscal expenditure, the risk of local fiscal deficit and the risk of the local fiscal debt. In China’s current circumstances, local fiscal risks mainly refer to the risk of land finance, the risk of financing platform and the risk of local fiscal expenditure. Among them, the risk of land finance includes the unsustainability of land and the risk of land finance. The risk of financing platform includes the origin, positive role and risks of financing platform; the risk of local fiscal expenditure includes the budget risk, decision-making risk and structural risk. Because local obligation and resources is unequal, the gap of local fiscal revenue and expenditure occur, and local government can get huge profits from land leasing, "land finance" has become the second fiscal revenue. Through land mortgages and fiscal subsidies, financing platform acquire large commercial loans to invest local infrastructure and urban reconstruction project from the banks. So it increases the risk of payments. In China, there is much inefficient situation of fiscal expenditure, this kind of circumstance need to be reversed. Considering the reality and integrity of fiscal data, this paper has taken Jiaozuo as a case, making empirical analysis of the risk local fiscal income, the risk of local fiscal expenditure, the risk of local fiscal deficit and the risk of the local fiscal debt.Local fiscal risks are caused by the inequality of the local fiscal obligation and resources, the necessity of fiscal expenditure increases, the mechanism of assessment oriented with GDP, and the soft restriction of fiscal behavior. For the reasons, to avoid the risk of financing platform, perfecting the mechanism of tax-distribution, strengthening the constraints of local fiscal behavior are the three procedures to solve local fiscal risks.更多还原