【作者】 娄春杰；

【导师】 刘洪钟；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 赶超经济学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 该文研究的主要目的是探讨汇率变化对中韩两国双边贸易的影响。虽然人民币汇率制度在很长一段时间都是紧盯美元的,但它对韩元一直是波动的,这就为我们提供了测试汇率制度的影响自然实验机会。本文分析的是人民币和韩元之间的汇率是否对两国的双边贸易有重大的影响以及这种影响的程度。目前中国是韩国最大的贸易伙伴,韩国是中国的第三大贸易伙伴。中韩两国日益增长的进出口额也带动了两国的经济增长。随着两国贸易额的不断扩大,两国贸易依赖关系日益增强。为了评估人民币汇率升值可能对中韩贸易造成的影响,本文应用不完全传递模型对两国从2000年第一季度到2009年第三季度中这一段时期的每个季度的国民生产总值及消费者价格指数的数据进行回归分析,研究结果表明实际汇率贬值变化对韩中两国之间的贸易量有正的影响,但影响不大。两国经济发展水平,两国国内价格水平是其重要的影响因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate changes on bilateral trade between Korea and China. Although the RMB yuan was fixed against the US dollar for several years, it has been fluctuating against the Korean won, which provides us with a natural experiment to test the exchange rate effect. This paper analyzed whether and to what extent the exchange rate between the RMB yuan and Korea won has significant impacts on bilateral trade between two countriesChina is currently Korea’s biggest trading partner and Korea is China’s third biggest trading partner. Korea’s recent economic growth has been partly due to increased exports to China, leading us to believe that China’s the economic growth will be an important exogenous factor in Korea’s growth. Both nations’ reliance on each other has become more significant ever since.In order to assess the possible effects of appreciation of Chinese RMB yuan, this paper use The Imperfect Substitutes Model based on the data of the two countries for the period from the first quarter 2000 to the last quarter 2009 between China and Korea to conduct regression analysis. Findings in this paper imply that real exchange rate changes have a little influence on trade volume between Korea and China, but its effect is weaker than the effect of GDP and CPI in the two countries.更多还原