【作者】 王慧；

【导师】 柯洪；

【作者基本信息】 天津理工大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 项目后评价理论的研究已经进入了一个比较成熟的阶段,然而对于特定类型的项目后评价的研究比较缺乏。针对这一问题,本文提出了电网项目的后评价研究。通常的项目后评价研究是从项目评价的不同方面进行研究的,本文提出了后评价系统的概念,在此基础上将论文的研究分为指标研究,数据研究以及方法研究三方面,最后通过案例进行验证。首先,本文利用系统理论,将评价指标的研究分为指标初选,指标筛选和指标检验。在此基础上,选用分析法建立评价指标初始集构架,并通过问卷调查和聚类分析主客观相结合的方法实现指标的筛选,同时将单个指标的可行性,整体指标的重复率和信息覆盖率贯穿在指标体系的筛选过程中,最终建立起电网项目的后评价系统的最终评价指标集。然后,通过文献综述,将电网项目后评价系统的最终评价指标分为已知和未知两种,根据不同评价系统的特点,对于过程评价指标集给出指标的获取渠道,对于影响评价指标通过设计问卷调查矩阵实现,电网技术性能评价指标通过明确指标的计算公式得出。通过分析指标的组成,界定出本文需要预测的数据为购电价和用电量。通过文献研究,使用时间序列方法对电价、用电量进行预测,最终获取电网项目后评价所需要的数据。再次,通过信息处理的过程将电网项目后评价方法的研究分为指标权重的计算方法和评价方法。通过方法的适用性分析,确定指标权重的计算方法为序关系分析法,评价方法本着简单适用的原则,与序关系分析法相结合,采用模糊综合评价法对电网项目进行后评价。最后,本文引用案例,在确定出具体的评价指标及权重之后,利用模型对所需数据进行预测,用模糊综合评价法对其进行后评价,最终得出电网项目后评价的结论。通过研究,本文最终建立起电网项目后评价系统,为电网项目后评价研究提供了新的思路,为今后电网项目后评价的研究提供了借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 Now post-evaluation of studies have enter into a more mature stage, however, specific types of post-evaluation study have rarely been found. To solve this problem, this thesis proposed post-evaluation of power grid project research. Usually post-evaluation has been studied in different aspects of project evaluation research, The thesis proposes the concept of the post-evaluation system, and will be divided into three aspects of indicators research,data analyze and methods of research based on the concept ,then the studies will be proved to be true by analyzing case.First of all, by using system theory, the study of indicator evaluation is divided into primary target indicators and targets indicators, the validation. Then the initial set of indicators will be established by selecting the method of analysis and the method of questionnaire survey and clustering analysis are used to carry out filtering. The feasibility of a single index, the coverage of overall index and information will go through the process of the filtering indicator system. Ultimately, the thesis establishes the final set of indicators of the power grid post-evaluation system.Secondly, through literature review, the target indicators set of network after a subject appraisal system will be separated into the known and unknown. According to different characteristics of evaluation systems, the thesis will propose the access channels of the process of appraisal target indicators set. By design questionnaire survey matrix, the impact indicators to evaluate can be developed. Network technology performance appraisal target indicators can be calculated through the clear formula. By analyzing the constitution of indicators, and define the data to predict which is purchase tariff and electricity consumption. Time series method uses the right way to predict electricity price. Regression method can be used to predict electricity consumption. Finally the date which is required in network after a project appraisal can be obtained. Thirdly, the process of analyzing information will divide the research of the power grid post-evaluation method into indicators weight calculating method and evaluation methods. Through analyzing the applicability of those methods,the way of calculating indicators weight is the method of relationship of the order, the post-evaluation method applies to the principles which is easily to apply and combine with the method of relationship of the order. The power grid post-evaluation project will use the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of projects.Finally,the article quote in the case, determine the specific evaluation indicators and its weight, use fuzzy comprehensive method to evaluate, and finally develop the power grid post-evaluation.更多还原